2013 NFL Draft Prospect - Cornerback (CB) Johnthan Banks "Is he the next Richard Sherman?"

Wednesday night, I noticed this twitter interaction between NFL All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman and star Mississippi State cornerback Johnthan Banks:

I found the confident statement "ill see you at the top," very intriguing.  Banks is already considered one of the top cornerbacks entering the 2013 NFL draft, but I wanted to take a closer look.

Let's start with his collegiate statistics:

The first thing I noticed here was his consistency.  Banks was a key contributor all four years and based on statistics alone, you see an all-around player.  His 16 interceptions rank him 4th all-time in the SEC (38% of all his defended passes resulted in a interception).

I really like seeing the sacks and forced fumbles.  MSU did not hesitate to use him on blitzes (watching game tape illustrates this as well).  In my opinion, the five forced fumbles are somewhat of a bonus coming from a corner (unless your Charles Tillman), but they should not be overlooked.  Between interceptions and forcing fumbles, this is a player that will get his team the ball.  It's often said, "Whoever wins the turnover battle usually wins the game," and in many cases that is true.  Not only will Banks help a team by being an outstanding pass defender, his ability to generate turnovers will directly contribute to winning football games.  

Banks is also a bit of a play-maker when he gets the ball in his hands.  While at MSU, he returned three interceptions for touchdowns and also scored on a punt return during the 2011 season.  His ability to turn interceptions into touchdowns is just another trait that results in winning more football games. 

Here's a clip of an interception he made off Tim Tebow (2009), which just happened to be returned for a 102 yard touchdown:

Here are some other highlights and game clips:

* Note - While researching Banks, I noticed that some draft profiles indicated a possible concern that he doesn't possess elite speed or vertical leaping ability.  What do you think? 

Video 1 - At 0:30 great punt return and 0:50 very nice vertical

Video 2 - Two interception game

Video 3 - Game clips, plus at 2:43 a great play/tip resulting in INT. 

Video 4 - Game clip, plus at 0:37 an excellent strip & recovery 

Video 5 - At 1:45 another great strip/recovery & at 2:33 INT with nice return. 

I know these are mostly highlights, and in no way am I'm saying he can't improve his game.  One area in particular that he needs to improve on, is his tackling.  He needs to be more consistent in squaring up to make the tackle, while wrapping up to finish it. (This can be corrected at the next level).  If you look at his entire body of work, I think you will see a corner that has played at a very high level in the toughest conference in college football (SEC) for the last four years.  

Banks has also shown great durability, having never missed a game in four seasons.  He began his freshman year in a backup role, but finished the last seven games of the season as the Bulldogs starting free safety.  Safety was the position Banks played in high school, as well as quarterback.  Prior to the start of his sophomore year (in college), Banks made the switch to cornerback where he has started every game since.

By the end of his senior year, Banks was honored with the following:

- 2012 Jim Thorpe Award (Most Outstanding Defensive Back)

- 2012 Walter Camp All-American (1st team)

- 2012 AP All-American (2nd team)

- 2012 All-SEC (1st team)

I want to focus on one of these honors in particular, and that is the Jim Thorpe Award.  Historically, the winner of this award has a very good chance of becoming a Pro-Bowl caliber player.  The last three winners (Morris Claiborne 11', Patrick Peterson 10', and Eric Berry 09') have all found early success in the NFL. Others like, Charles Woodson in 97' and Antoine Winfield in 98' have put together Hall of Fame worthy careers.  The most famous winner of the Thorpe award was none other than Hall of Famer Deion Sanders.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Banks is going to be the next "Prime Time."  The point is, he has a very good chance of becoming an great NFL player, while maintaining that level of performance for many years.

The part that actually impressed me the most with his Jim Thorpe Award, was what he said during the presentation ceremony.

ESPN's Chris Fowler asked Banks the following questions:

Fowler:  "What are you most proud of,  (in) your journey of perseverance to be here tonight?" 

Banks (answer): "Being a father to my kid."

Fowler:  In reference to his son (KJ), "What has he taught you about life?"

Banks (answer): "He's taught me to grow up and be a man."

Here is the full video trophy presentation.

Those two answers really stood out to me.  I see a young man who has his priorities in order and is only 23 years old.  He also comes off as very humble in that and other interviews.  Banks had a difficult childhood, but one thing is clear, he is a fighter.  From everything I've read and watched, Johnthan Banks is a person of very high character and that is extremely important to many NFL teams.  But, don't just take my word for it.

In reference to his two starting CB's (Banks and Darius Slay), MSU's defensive coordinator Chris Wilson was quoted (find it here) as saying this  “They’re also better human beings than they are football players.”  

Considering how good those two players are at football, that is a powerful statement.  

So let's recap.  In Johnthan Banks, we have: a 6'2", 185lb, cornerback who excelled in the SEC, won the Jim Thorpe Award, is raising his 1 year old son with his long time girlfriend (whom he recently married), all while overcoming a difficult childhood (Yahoo Sports childhood story here).  Who wouldn't want this guy on their team? 

Back to where we started.  Will Johnthan Banks see Richard Sherman "at the top"?  I wouldn't bet against him.

Extra Points:

* Currently, ESPN's Mel Kiper doesn't have Banks going in the 1st, while Todd McShay has him going 25th.  Scouts Inc currently has him ranked 22nd overall in their top 32.  The NFL Scouting Combine can also play a part in a player rising or falling on draft boards.  The combine will take place from February 20th through the 26th.

* I don't see Banks getting out of the 1st round or past the Giants (19th pick) for that matter (who have been scouting him for months).  As a Seahawks fan, there is a part of me that would love to see this guy lined up opposite Richard "Optimus Prime" Sherman (Browner is a FA after the 2013 season).

Thanks for following my blog and have a great weekend.
 

2013 NFL Salary Cap Space for all 32 teams (by division).

Some of you might have seen this piece (click here) by ESPN's John Clayton in regards to the cap room available for each NFL team in 2013.  I thought it would be a good idea to look at those figures broken down by division.  This will give fans a general idea of how active their favorite team may be during the 2013 NFL Free Agency period (beginning March, 12th).

Here is the table and how each division currently looks per John Clayton's figures (negative amounts in RED).

The Jets, Steelers and Raiders clearly have issues in the AFC, while the Redskins, Giants, Cowboys, Panthers, Saints, Lions, and Cardinals have problems in the NFC.

In the coming weeks, I plan to dig deeper into Free Agency and discuss some of the needs each team will be looking to address this off-season.  Until then, I wanted to get this post out so you can see how your favorite team stacks up in their division and conference.

As always, thank you for following my blog and feel free to comment below on your favorite team's situation.

2013 NFL Free Agency - Need to improve your pass rush? Why Victor Butler may be the answer.

While everyone is talking Super Bowl right now, I've decided to take a different approach.  I'm already thinking ahead to NFL Free Agency (begins March, 12th).

My goal was to find an underrated free agent who could be a substantial value for a needy team, while having breakout potential.  My hope is to do this for several positions as we near free agency.  Today, I decided to research a player that could improve a teams pass rush.  I came up with Dallas Cowboy free agent Victor Butler (OLB), who will turn 26 just before the 2013 preseason.  

                                          Photo: Rich Schultz/Getty Images


The Cowboys drafted Butler in the 4th round (110 overall) out of Oregon State in the 2009 NFL Draft.  Despite only becoming a full-time starter his senior year (12 sacks, 4 forced fumbles), Butler finished his collegiate career with 26 sacks (2nd in Beaver history).  His 26 total sacks rank sixth in the PAC-12, since the year 2000.  He was also voted team captain his senior year.

                                                  AP Photo/Dean Hare

If you look up Butler's many draft profiles, you will see the word "tweener" come up a lot.  He was viewed as to big (6'2", 248lbs) for a 4-3 outside linebacker and a bit small for a defensive end (his college position).  Despite the dreaded "tweener" label, most scouts agreed that he possessed good pass rushing skills and could find a role as a situational pass rusher.

Dallas ended up drafting him to play outside linebacker in their 3-4 scheme.  Many in Dallas, expected Butler to challenge Anthony Spencer for the starting job opposite DeMarcus Ware.  In the end, Butler couldn't unseat Spencer, who has made great strides the last two seasons.  Both Spencer and Butler will be unrestricted free agents this off-season.

Here are the statistics Butler accumulated while backing up both DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer the last four seasons:

63 games played
89 tackles (69 solo)
11.0 sacks
5 forced fumbles
2 recovered fumbles
4 passes defended

I'll admit, those statistics are nothing special on the surface.  I decided to break down Butler's stats a little further by using information gathered by profootballfocus.com.  Here's what I found:

    Snap counts, QB hits and hurries gathered from ProFootballFocus, Sacks by NFL.com.

Year by year, his total snap counts have gradually increased.  Much of the increase is a result of filling in when Ware or Spencer have been dinged up, plus some situational roles.

When looking at Bulter's stats, be aware that starting outside linebackers (both 3-4 and 4-3) routinely have 800 or more snaps per season.  It you look at his career numbers, it's basically what a full season of production might look like for Butler (which are very impressive from that perspective).  The other number to pay close attention to, is passing snap percentage.  Butler was not just a pass rushing specialist for the Cowboys.  Since 57% of his total snaps were during passing downs, that means 43% of the time he was on the field during running plays.  In fact, according to ProFootballFocus (PFF), Butler is a good run defender and has improved every season since he has been in the league.

Here are the overall run defense ratings (grade) Butler has received from PFF the last fours seasons:

2009 = -1.7
2010 = 0.3
2011 = 1.7
2012 = 6.1 

You can see the clear improvement since 2009.  While his snaps per season make this a small sample, I believe it shows he is capable of learning and that he won't be a liability in run defense.  One other aspect of Butler's game that I like is that he is a sure tackler - only 5 missed tackles (per PFF) during his first four years.

Out of pure curiosity, I wanted to compare Butler's career pass rush statistics to the 2012 season of DeMarcus Ware.  Here is how he stacks up:

This is where I get very excited for what Butler could become (if given an opportunity to start in the right scheme).  Notice that Ware actually had more snaps this year than Butler has in his career.  While Ware has more QB hits, Butler is almost identical in sacks and hurries.  Butler is also rushing the passer at a slightly lower rate.

So, I am saying that Victor Butler could become as great as DeMarcus Ware?  No.  What I'm saying, is that there is a very productive pass rusher here, that might breakout if given a starting opportunity.  

                                                       Photo: Edward A. Ornelas, Express-News

As I mentioned early, both Butler and Spencer are unrestricted free agents.  That begs the question, as to why I think Dallas would even let Butler walk when they could probably save significant money signing him over Spencer.

First, along with the signing of new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin comes a likely shift to a Tampa 2 style defense that utilizes a 4-3 front.

Here are two stories indicating the scheme change:

Cowboysblog.dallasnews.com piece

ESPN Dallas piece
    
Since Butler is a so-called "tweener", Dallas may want to take a more traditional approach at OLB (smaller/faster) and DE (bigger/stronger).  On the surface that wouldn't include Butler, granted I can't read Monte Kiffin's mind.

The other reason I don't think Bulter will be back with the Cowboys, is due to statements coming from folks who cover Dallas sports.

Here are some recent qoutes:

1/10/13 - Calvin Watkins (Quote here):  In referense to Butler's time in Dallas, "The Cowboys needed more plays out of Victor Butler"

12/31/12 - Todd Archer (Quote Here): In reference to Butler's free agent status, "Can be a situational pass rusher, but not an every down player."

11/27/12 - Jean-Jacques Taylor (Quote here):  In reference to Butler's production, "Yet another unproductive draft pick."

It's completely possible that Monte Kiffin sees something in Butler that he likes and puts in a word for resigning him.  It's also possible, that Jerry Jones has seen enough and won't bother trying to resign him.

Here are some teams who have cap room, need to improve their pass rush, and in my opinion should at least give Butler a look this off-season:

- COLTS (46M in cap space):  The Colts are still rebuilding on defense and in 2012 they starting running a 3-4 scheme.  With Dwight Freeney becoming an unrestricted free agent and both Robert Mathis and Jerry Hughes struggling this season, the Colts could use an OLB who is familiar with the scheme.  They have a ton of cap space and need to bring in younger players at the linebacker position.  At the very least, Butler would add depth and should instantly compete for playing time.

- JAGUARS (22.1M in cap space):  The Jags run a 4-3 scheme, but with new Head Coach Gus Bradley (former Seattle DC) running the show, I could see them getting creative on defense like the Seahawks.  Bradley hired Bob Babich to be his defensive coordinator, but I believe Bradley will dictate much of what the defense does.  Will Bradley utilize a "Leo" position in the Jags defense?  If so, Butler could play the Chris Clemons role.  Remember, Bradley has been running a hybrid 4-3 that utilizes 3-4 style personnel.   (More info on "Leo" position)

- BILLS (20.6M in cap space):  The Bills recently hired Mike Pettine to take over their defense.  As defensive coordinator for the Jets, Pettine ran a 3-4 defense.  That said, he has not committed to one style of defense for the Bills.  Recently, he stated, "We are a multiple front, multiple coverage defense." (See more).

The Bills have spent a lot of resources (money and draft picks) on their defensive line over the years.  Outside of Nick Barnett (who will be 33 by pre-season), it's safe to say that linebacker is a weak link on this team.  Ten year veteran OLB Bryan Scott will be a free agent and has given them no reason to bring him back.  It just makes good sense for the Bills to consider Victor Butler.

- SEAHAWKS (18.6M in cap space):  Seattle is possibly one piece away from taking the next step.  It's no secret they have been lacking in pass rush over the years (more info here).  With star defensive end Chris Clemons going down with a torn ACL (just 8 days ago), Seattle is in an even worse position now.  Clemons (31 years old) will most likely not be ready for the regular season and 1st round pick Bruce Irvin doesn't seem prepared to assume the full time "LEO" role.

Also, it doesn't hurt that Pete Carroll coached against Butler at USC and knows exactly what he is capable of.  Seattle is not afraid to take chances, especially on a "situational pass rusher."  Clemons himself was tagged a "situational pass rusher," but in three seasons with Seattle (in a starting role), he has posted no less than 11 sacks each year.

- EAGLES (5.2M in cap space):  The Eagles are the long shot of this group.  They don't have as much cap room and still haven't hired a defensive coordinator to work with new Head Coach Chip Kelly.  Also, he is not set on any one defensive scheme.  That said, the Eagles struggled this season to generate a consistent pass rush and are in full rebuild mode.  Like Carroll, Chip Kelly is familiar with Victor Butler since he faced him while coaching at Oregon.  Kelly may not have any NFL experience at this point, but his knowledge of current and former college players could come in handy when signing free agents (veteran or undrafted).

**  Update - Eagles hired Billy Davis as defensive coordinator.  It looks like they will run a hybrid 4-3 (Click here for more info).  Bulter would still be a good fit for this style of defense.

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Thanks for following my blog.  I will get back on the Super Bowl wagon with my next blog.  

Gus who? Why the Seahawks defense will be just fine after their coordinator moves on.

Yesterday, Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, accepted the Head Coach position for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In 2012, Seattle had arguably the best defense in the NFL.  As coordinator of that defense since 2009 (hired by Jim Mora Jr.), Bradley gets much of the credit for their recent success.

Based on the above statistics, there is no doubt the Seahawks defense has improved.  Yards allowed per game (YPG) and points allowed (PPG) are two of the most popular defensive statistics when evaluating a defense.

As a lifelong fan of the Seahawks, I tend to look deeper.  For instance, I know that Seattle has struggled to get consistent pressure on the quarterback for years.  They have also struggled to get off the field on 3rd downs.  These two issues reared their ugly head again this season, and especially in the playoffs.

Here are the numbers:

                               * Sack % = Total # of sacks / (Pass Attempts + Sacks)


During the fours years that Gus Bradley was the DC in Seattle, his defense was below average in 3rd down conversions allowed in three of those seasons (including 2012).  Even worse, his defense was below the NFL average in sack percentage all four seasons.

Seattle attempted to improve the defensive pass rush this off-season by drafting defensive end Bruce Irvin (8.0 sacks, situational pass rusher in most cases) and signing defensive tackle Jason Jones (3.0 sacks, finished season on IR).  Unfortunately, those moves didn't have the impact Seattle was looking for.

During the 2012 playoffs, Bradley's defense allowed their opponents to convert 50% of their 3rd down conversions (5 for 11 @ WAS and 6 for 11 @ ATL).  His defense posted a pathetic playoff sack percentage of 3.03%, which included zero sacks against Atlanta's Matt Ryan and two sacks versus a hobbled Robert Griffin III.

It should be noted, Seattle runs a hybrid 4-3 defense that includes 3-4 type personnel/looks.  The scheme is what Pete Carroll's has run for years (NFL and USC, click here for more on Seattle's scheme).  The primary duty of Gus Bradley was to gameplan and call plays.  Of course, Pete Carroll a defensive coach at heart, could be seen throughout games coaching up the defense (even while the offense was running plays).

The main take away here, is that Seattle has had these two issues for years and have yet to properly correct them.  I believe both 3rd down percentage allowed and sack percentage are largely a result of gameplanning and play calling.  After looking at these numbers and watching every game, I don't see a coordinator that is truly improving/growing in these areas.  If you are going to give Bradley credit for the good defensive statistics, than he must also be held responsible for the poor statistics.  I wish Bradley all the luck in the world as a HC, but I'm still very optimistic about the Seahawk defense moving forward.

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On the same day Bradley left for Jacksonville, Seattle hired Florida Gator defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to take over as their DC. Seahawk fans will remember Quinn, who was the defensive line coach for Jim Mora in 2009 and Pete Carroll in 2010.
                                                                                                              
For the last two years at Florida, Quinn has been running a 3-4 defense.  The head coach at Florida is defensive guru Will Muschamp.  Muschamp like Carroll, is known for using hybrid defenses and likes an attacking style.  

Here are Florida's defensive ranks with Quinn as defensive coordinator:

In 2012, his defense did slip some in 3rd down conversion and sack percentage.  While college football is not the NFL, those ranks are out of 120 FBS teams and they are impressive (especially when you consider his conference).

There are a few other things I like about the Quinn hire:

- He is relatively young (42) and his career has been moving in a positive direction (leaving on his terms to continue career growth - from NFL DLine coach to College DC to NFL DC).

- He is familiar with Carroll's defensive scheme from his time in 2010.

- He is familiar with many of the Seahawk players as well as others in the organization.

- He has worked under some great defensive minds in his career (Muschamp 11'-12', Carroll 10', and Saban 05'-06').

- While Seattle's defensive line was not a dominate force during the 2009 and 2010 seasons, the current talent on the roster is clearly an upgrade.  Since Seattle still needs to address the inconsistency of their pass rush, this off-season should bring even more talent to an already good defense.

- He has two years of recent experience in the best conference in college football (SEC).  Why is this so important? Well, he has seen first hand some of the best talent (on his team and his opponents) that will be entering the NFL draft over the next several years.  I assume, he also helped recruit defensive players over those two seasons (scouting and evaluation).  This paid dividends for Pete Carroll the last 3 seasons, and now Seattle has another uniquely qualified individual to assist them in preparing for future drafts.  Don't underestimate how useful this was for Pete Carroll and John Schneider as they've rebuilt the Seattle roster.

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Last but not least, I believe the presence of Pete Carroll can not be overlooked.

Coach Carroll will always be involved in this defense and much of their "new" identity is a direct result of his influence.  This move could actually be a blessing in disguise for the Seahawks.  They could be catching a rising star in Dan Quinn, while getting a new style of gameplanning and play calling that could correct some defensive issues they've had for years.      





   

An NFL fan's lament....or not?

It's been over 24 hours now since my heart was ripped out (twice).  It should be known, that I'm a lifelong Seahawks fan (actually born the same year the franchise was established -1976).  It's hard to explain the emotions I felt over the course of the game.  For the first quarter, I was frustrated, but had hope.  By the end of the second quarter, I was flat out irate (little to no hope).  With two minutes left in the third quarter (down 27-7), I was convinced the game was over.  No matter what, I had to continue to watch the game.  The fourth quarter was the greatest quarter of football I've ever seen a Seahawk quarterback play.  With 31 seconds left, I was completely elated.  Little did I know, I would be absolutely devastated just moments later.

To say I was angry after the game is an understatement.  

This is what went through my head (please stay with me here):

1.  Pete Carroll cost the team this game.  He left at least two easy field goals out their during the first half (going on 4 and 1, plus poor clock management at the half).  This is how he managed games back in 2010.  He seemed to have grown this year and no longer made knucklehead decisions that cost the team points.  "COME ON PETE!"  "You have to know better, right?

2.  What if Lynch doesn't fumble in the 1st quarter?  It was his 2nd fumble lost in two playoff games.

3.  Maybe Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley should have been putting together a defensive gameplan instead of interviewing for his next job (clearly the extra prep time would not have hurt).  By the way, I bet he was glad this first half wasn't on his resume during said interview.

4.  What if Chris Clemons was healthy and playing?  Would the team have had more than zero sacks and one QB hit. Someone should be fired for that piece of crap "NFL field" in Washington.

5. Why in the world was the secondary playing so far off the receivers on Atlanta's game winning drive?  Why not just put the ball in FG range?  Was this Gus Bradley's call? 

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Now, back to present day (January 14th, 2013 at 6:45pm PST).  Forget the previous five points I just made and listen very closely to every word I'm about to say.

1.  I am an absolutely spoiled NFL fan that needs to pull my head out of my @#$.  

2.  There are 20 other NFL teams that didn't even make the playoffs.  24 teams were sitting at home watching games this weekend.  Those fans would have loved to be on the ride I just took with my team.

3.  Arguably, 20 other NFL teams would love to have a franchise quarterback like Russell Wilson.  With every additional game and every additional quarter, Wilson continued to prove his doubters wrong (myself included early in the year).  There is no question this man has the "it" factor and I feel blessed to have him as my team's quarterback.

4.  Arguably, 30 other NFL teams would love to have this young, fast, hard hitting, never say die defense as their own. 

5.  Let's see, Seattle has:  a franchise quarterback, a dominate left tackle, an All-Pro center, an All-Pro "beast" at running back, an All-Pro "lockdown" cornerback, and an All-Pro "ball hawk" at free safety and I have the nerve to sulk.  Who the hell do I think I am?   

6.  In the last three years, my favorite team as been torn apart and rebuilt into one of the best and most exciting young teams in the NFL.  Instead of complaining and second guessing Pete Carroll, I should be thanking him for his eye for talent and his contributions for putting this team together.  At the start of this season, there were only 9 players left on the Seahawks roster from the 2009 team (by my count, only 7 remain as of today).  

7.  After all of that, as a Seahawks fan, I have one more thing in my favor.  My favorite team has one of the best General Managers in the NFL.  Pete Carroll hasn't assembled this team alone.  John Schneider (who is also in his 3rd year with the organization) has been nothing short of amazing since coming to Seattle.  I can't tell you how many times I wished Seattle could consistently find young talent throughout the draft, while making smart moves in free agency.  Schneider is not afraid to go against the grain when putting a team together.  Fact, he drafted a QB that was too short, a corner that was too tall, and strong safety that was to big, signed another corner that was too tall (from the CFL), traded for a reserve defensive end (that has led the team in sacks for three consecutive years now), and traded for a disappointing "beast."  I could go and on and on.

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You can see, that am in fact one of the luckiest NFL fans on earth.  The "always compete" attitude that Pete Carroll has brought to this team is a thing of beauty and it shows every week on the field.  Would I like to see this team win a Super Bowl?  Hell yes I would.  That said, right now I couldn't ask for anything more from this organization (front office, coaches, and players), everyone clearly has the same goal and is giving all their effort to obtain that goal.  I am so excited for what the 2013 off-season will bring and have no doubt that this team will find ways to improve upon what was a great season.

I will close with this list:

1.  Thank you Seahawk players for giving 110% day in and day out.

2.  Thank you Pete Carroll, for all that you do.

3.  Thank you John Schneider, for working so well with Pete and assembling the finest group of young talent in the NFL.

4.  Finally, thank you to my fellow 12's.  This has a been a crazy year.  I know their have been times that I've doubted and haven't deserved to be called a "12th Man".  Just know, I truly love this team and nothing will ever change that. 

NFL player spotlight - TE Tony Gonzalez

Today's matchup against the Seattle Seahawks could be the last game for NFL great Tony Gonzalez.  Gonzalez plans to retire at the end of the season (95% sure according to him).  While plenty of networks are talking about the upcoming retirement of the Ray Lewis, they are neglecting Tony Gonzalez.

                                          Photo by Kevin C. Cox

I wanted to take a moment to touch on the career of Gonzalez; a career that is arguably the best for a Tight End in NFL History.  He was drafted 13th overall in the 1997 NFL Draft by the Kansas City Chiefs.  He spent 12 seasons with the Cheifs, while his last 4 seasons have been with the Atlanta Falcons.  Needless to say, the Chiefs hit a home-run and Gonzalez helped transform the tight end position.

Here are his career regular season stats:  1242 receptions, 14268 yards, 11.5 avg, with 103 TD's.

Gonzalez is 1st All-Time for the Tight End positions in:  Receptions, Yards, and TD's.

Overall ranks for all positions:
2nd All-Time in receptions
6th All-Time in receiving TDs
7th All-Time in receiving yards

Along the way, Gonzalez has been selected to 13 Pro Bowls, 10 All-Pro teams and set the record for most consecutive starts by a tight end (120 games).

                                       
Let's not forget that as a former college basketball player (California Bears), Gonzalez made slamming the football over crossbar popular.  Several players have tried to emulate this, but nobody does it better than Mr. Gonzalez.

The one area Tony Gonzalez has fallen short in his career, is finding playoff success.  Overall, his teams are 0-5 (Chiefs 0-2, Falcons 0-3) in the playoffs.  Of course, Gonzalez is not the sole reason for those playoff disappointments.  That said, he hasn't shined in the playoffs either.  In five career playoff games, he has 16 receptions for a total of 157 yards (9.81 YPR) and two touchdowns.  It's very possible that Gonzalez will retire with zero playoff wins despite having a 16 year Hall of Fame career - (Update - Atlanta beat Seattle, Gonzalez had 6 receptions for 51 yards and 1 touchdown).

As you watch the Seattle/Atlanta game today, be sure to think about how great this player has been (on and off the field).  While Tony Gonzalez doesn't have a dance as cool as Ray Lewis, and he certainly isn't as loud, he has had just as dominate a career.  When I think about players who redefined a position, I think Tony Gonzalez.

Enjoy the games and have a great day.

NFL Rushing Statistical trends - The last 35 years (1978 to 2012), plus fun Super Bowl facts.

After publishing a blog on the last 35 years of NFL passing trends (view here), I couldn't forget about the running game.

Is the NFL running game really taking a backseat to the passing game?

What impact has the athletic QB had on the NFL running game, statistically speaking?

Does a successful running game result in Super Bowl victories?

These are just some of the questions I wanted to answer when researching this topic.  You can find the answers throughout this blog post.  Enjoy.

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The two graphs above clearly show the shift from a rushing league to a passing league, with the most significant changes coming from 1978 to 1980.  If you've read my passing trend piece, those dates should look familiar.

In 1978 the NFL changed a rule that permitted a defender to maintain contact with a receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but prohibited them from making contact past that point.

From 1995 to present, their have been some ups and downs, but for the most part the league has stabilized in terms of Run/Pass play selection.  It should be noted, that the 43.9% this year was the lowest percentage of run plays in the last 35 years (only 0.2% less than 1995).

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The next graph breaks down the total numbers of plays, pass, and run per team per game in the NFL over the last 35 years.  Please note - This is a league average per team.

Prior to putting this data into a graph, I would have guessed that NFL teams are running more total plays now than in the past (I would have been wrong).  You can see that the average NFL team runs fewer total plays now than in 1978.  Again, since 1995 (18 years) it's been relatively stable.

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While rushing attempts are down over the last 35 years, the yards per carry has increased.  The mid 90's were hard on YPC, but since then it's been consistently trending upward.  The highest YPC in the last 35 years has come in the last two seasons (4.29 in 2011 and 4.26 in 2012).

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The above graph should come as no surprise.  As rushing attempts went down in the last 70's and early 80's, the rushing yards per game (per team) went down as well.  Like the yards per carry average, the rushing yards per game bottomed out in the mid 90's, but since then it's been slowing trending up.

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The rushing touchdown percentage has been flat out up and down the last 35 years.  On thing is for sure, running the ball less hasn't negatively impacted the rushing touchdown percentage (per attempt).  The graph has a very similar trend to the Passing touchdown percentage graph.  Here are the two side by side:

Both rush TD% and pass TD% are up and down over the last 35 years, with no consistent trend in either area.
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If you're like me, by now you are wondering what impact Quarterback rushing trends have on the overall rushing tendencies in the NFL.  Let's take a look.

This graph shows what percentage of NFL rushing attempts were made by quarterbacks (QB).  You can see that QB's have been contributing to a higher percentage of rushing attempts over the last 35 years (peaking out in 2000).

This trend can be attributed to the fact that QB's are becoming more athletic in recent years, but it's also due to a shift in play calling.  When NFL teams call a higher percentage of passing plays, it also increases the chances that the QB will have to scramble out of the pocket and will be credited with a rushing attempt.

In 2011 and 2012, we have seen another shift in playing calling within the running game itself.  In 2011, Denver and Carolina ran option style offenses which featured Tim Tebow and Cam Newton more in the running game.  This season, we witnessed:  S.F., Carolina, Seattle, and Washington run more option style offenses which also increases QB rushing attempts.  At the same time, gifted scramblers like Vick, Rodgers and now Luck contribute to these numbers as well.

The year 2000 produced the highest percentage of QB rushing attempts in the last 35 years.  That season, seven quarterbacks had at least 70 rushing attempts (Culpepper - 89, Gannon - 89, McNabb - 86, Stewart - 78, King - 73, McNair - 72, and Garcia - 72).  This season, only three quarterbacks had more than 70 rushing attempts, but they had much more (Newton - 127, RGIII - 120, and Wilson - 94).  In 2000, those offenses weren't really option style (except Stewart at times), it was more the result of gifted scramblers.
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This graph was to compare the effectiveness of the QB when rushing compared to the overall NFL average. In most years, QB's do not reach the NFL average.  It should be noted, that QB's get charged a rushing attempt for a kneel down which does negatively impact their YPA (in those situations).

There is the year 2000 again (the year of the scrambler), with the best year on this graph being 1990.  You may (or may not) remember 1990, it brought us Randall Cunningham and his then record 942 rushing yards for a QB with an 8.0 YPA.

It wasn't just Cunningham though, these QB's also had very high yards per carry average in 1990:

Peete - 7.7
Testaverde - 7.4
Majkowski - 6.4
Harbaugh - 6.3
Rosenbach - 5.5
Gannon - 5.2
Elway - 5.2

You get the point.  1990 was a great year for the running/scrambling QB.
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The blue line indicates the percentage of all NFL rushing attempts by the quarterback (QB), the red line indicates the percentage of all NFL rushing touchdowns scored by the QB.

Increasing the number of QB rushing attempts does not guarantee a higher rushing touchdown percentage.  Over the years, many QB rushing touchdowns have been short yardage goalline sneaks (keepers) and bootlegs.  The huge jump in TD% the last two seasons could be explained by a change in scheme (read option) and explosive QB's like:  Newton, RGIII, Tebow, and Kaepernick.

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Fun facts related to NFL rushing yards and Super Bowl Championships.

1.  Since 1978, the only Super Bowl Champion to lead the NFL (regular season) in rushing yards is the 85' Chicago Bears.  Only four Super Bowl Champions since 78' have lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (85' Bears, 91' Redskins, 95' Cowboys, and 98' Broncos).

2.  Of the 34 Super Bowl Champions from 1978 to 2011, thirteen (38%) of them were in the top 5 in rushing yards during the regular season, twelve (35%) of them were in the top 5 in rushing touchdowns.

- Since 2001, only the 05' Steelers (5th) and 07' Giants (4th) finished in the top 5 in rushing yards and won the Super Bowl.

- Speaking of the New York Giants.  The Super Bowl Champion since 1978 to be dead last in rushing yards during the regular season and win a Super Bowl was the 2011 New York Giants.  They were 6th in rushing touchdowns though.

- Since 2001, only the 05' Steelers (5th) and 09' Saints have finished in the top 5 (4th) in rushing touchdowns and won a Super Bowl.

3.  Since 1978, 24 (71%) of Super Champions finished the regular season in the top 10 for rushing yards and 21 (62%) have been in the top 10 for rushing touchdowns.

4.  Of the top ten rushing quarterbacks in NFL history, only Steve Young (3rd All-time, 4239 yards) and John Elway (5th All-time, 3407 yards) have started and won a Super Bowl.  Elway did it twice.

5.  The most regular season rushing yards by a Super Bowl winning quarterback (same year) was 356 yards by Aaron Rodgers in 2010.

6.  Three of the top five quarterbacks in rushing yards during the 2012 season made the playoffs (RGIII, Wilson, & Kaepernick).

7.  Three of the top five rushers (all players) in 2012 made the playoffs (Peterson, Morris, and Lynch).

8.  Since 1978, only Emmitt Smith (93', 95') and Terrell Davis (98') won the rushing title and a Super Bowl in the same year.

9.  The Cowboys won the Super Bowl three times in the 90's.  They never finished lower than 5th in rushing yards during their Super Bowl winning seasons (5th in 92', 2nd in 93', and 2nd in 95').  They never finished lower in than 2nd in rushing touchdowns during those three years (2nd in 92', 2nd in 93', and 1st in 95').

Just to emphasize how much the Cowboys relied on their dominate running game, here are some of Troy Aikman's stats during those three championship season:

92' - 473 attempts, 3445 yards, 23 TD passes (Cowboys T-7th in pass TD's - 23 total)
93' - 392 attempts, 3100 yards, 15 TD passes (Cowboys T-16th in pass TD's - 18 total)
95' - 432 attempts, 3304 yards, 16 TD passes (Cowboys 22nd in pass TD's - 18 total)

92' - 20 Rush TD's to 23 Pass TD's
93' - 20 Rush TD's to 18 Pass TD's
95' - 29 Rush TD's to 18 Pass TD's

How long do you think it will be before we see another NFL dynasty that is built around their running game and a Hall of Fame running back?

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* All statistics collected from www.pro-football-reference.com, www.sports.yahoo.com (stats LLC), and www.NFL.com

Thanks for following my blog.

NFL Passing Statistic trends - The last 35 years.

As the 2012 NFL season comes to an end, it will be remembered as "The year of the rookie quarterback."  Of the twelve teams that made the playoffs, three of them have rookies starting at QB (Wilson, RGIII, and Luck).  The Bengals, Niners, and Vikings have 2nd year starters at QB (Dalton, Kaepernick, and Ponder).  Think about that, 50% of the starting QB's in the 2012 playoffs don't have more than 2 years of NFL experience.

Like me, you've probably heard many retired NFL quarterbacks talk about how much easier it is to play the position in today's NFL.  Over the years, rule changes have favored not only the offense, but the QB specifically.  I decided to look back on the last 35 years of NFL passing statistics, to not only educate myself on current trends, but to also inform other NFL fans.  These statistics go back to 1978, which is the first season NFL teams played a 16 game regular season schedule.  

Some of these stats might not surprise you and I'm not trying to prove something we already know (the NFL is a QB driven league.  That said, I think this type of research can help us all when comparing quarterbacks from other generations (decades), especially when determining who is and isn't elite (or even average).  

* Disclaimer - I do understand that statistics don't tell the entire story for a player, but they do play a major role in my opinion.  

Enjoy.

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First, let's take a look at pass attempts per game per team:

Observations:

1.  You can see that the general trend in passing attempts has gone up the last 35 years, but a closer look shows that it's actually been up and down the last 20 years (1993 to present).  

2.  In 1978 the NFL changed a rule that permitted a defender to maintain contact with a receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but prohibited them from making contact past that point.  1978 to 1981 appears to be the adjustment period in the NFL, and explains the sharp increase in passing attempts over the next 4 years.

3.  The highest number of attempts in the last 35 years, came in 1995 with 34.79 attempts per team per game.  1995 was also the first season NFL quarterbacks were allowed to have radio communications in their helmets.  It wasn't until 2009, that one defensive player could have radio communications as well.  

4.  In most cases, the difference in between years is only 1 or 2 pass attempts a game.  

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Now let's take a look at the NFL average Yards per Pass Attempt (YPA) per year:

Observations:

1.  Yards per attempt (YPA), otherwise known as "average yards gained per attempt" is one of four statistics used in calculating the NFL Quarterback rating.  

2.  This data set was very interesting.  While last season was the highest yards per attempt over the last 35 years at 7.20, you can see that in 1983 the YPA was 7.18 (very close).  

3.  This data has been up and down over the last 35 years.  The lowest YPA over this period of time came in 2003 with 6.64 (not that long ago).  One could conclude that based on yardage alone, it hasn't become drastically more beneficial to pass the ball in the NFL.   

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Now, let's take a look at completion percentage:

Observations:

1.  Completions percentage is also one of four statistics used in calculating the NFL QB rating.

2.  Without question, this statistic has been trending up over the last 35 years.  

 - The 1978 to 1980 increase could be associated with the previously noted rule change only allowing contact with a receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.  

3.  In 1988, the NFL went from a 30 second play clock to a 45 second play clock.  Could this have contributed to the a consistent increase in QB inaccuracy up until 1995?  I think giving a QB more time at the line of scrimmage would only help their performance, so my answer would be "YES."

4.  By 1996 the NFL reemphasized the "5 yard contact rule" and made efforts that it would be "more strictly" enforced.  This would only add to a QB's effectiveness by giving the receivers added advantage over the defender.  The impact didn't happen immediately, but I believe over time it's effect on these statistics is clear.  (Note: The 5 consecutive seasons of increasing completion percentage 1998 to 2002) 

5.  Another rule change in 2002, made it illegal to hit a QB helmet to helmet at anytime after a change of possession.  That was followed by the 2006 rule change that prohibited "defenders from hitting the passer at or below the knee, unless blocked into them."

6.  Notice in 2007 we see the highest completion percentage in the last 35 years with 61.2%.  That same year, the NFL changed the rule for a completed catch.  A receiver was no longer required to make "a football move", they only needed two feet down and control of the ball.

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Next is the NFL passing touchdown percentage (what percent of passes are touchdown passes):

Observations:

1.  The TD % statistic is one of the four statistics used to calculate the NFL QB rating.

2.  The 35 year history of this statistic is the opposite of completion percentage.  Statistically speaking, you could not find a correlation between the NFL rule changes and passing touchdown percentage.  You have to go back to 1987 to find the highest passing touchdown percentage at 4.53%.  The lowest percentage was in 1993 at 3.59%.  

3.  The chances of scoring a passing touchdown have not truly increased or decreased over the last 35 years.  The trend line is almost flat, which basically indicates no trend at all.  

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With the good (TD%) must come the bad (INT%) - Interception percentage per attempt.

Observations:

1.  Interception percentage is one of four statistics used in calculating the NFL QB rating.

2.  This is the most telling statistic of all in my opinion. While YPA and TD% have been up and down, interception percentage (INT %) has plummeted in the NFL over the last 35 years.  In fact, this season produced the lowest interception percentage in the last 35 years with 2.63%.  Does this mean QB's are making better decisions than in past years?  Not necessarily.  Sure there are more quarterback camps now days for High School kids and technology has made it easier to study film/defenses, but the bottom line is the defenders have been consistently handcuffed by new rules over the last 35 years.  

I'm not telling you something you don't already know.  What I hope you are starting to figure out is that just because QB's are breaking some records and posting more impressive numbers every year, that doesn't mean these players are superior to those that preceded them.  

3.  Only 7 times in last 35 years have there been more interceptions in a season than touchdown passes (78' - 82', 85', and 92').  It's been 20 years since there have been more interceptions thrown in the NFL than touchdown passes during a single season.  

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It's the one you've all been wait for, the NFL QB Rating (aka Passer Rating):

  

* Please note in combined NFL team statistics, yards lost due to sacks are subtracted from the teams total passing yards, this produces an inaccurate QB rating since sack yards are not subtracted from individual player statistics prior to calculating the QB rating.  Therefore, I did not subtract yards lost due to sacks when calculating the annual QB rating for the NFL.

Observations:

1.  This statistic really says it all about what has happened to the quarterback position.  This year's average QB (passer) rating of 85.56 is 20.55 points higher than the 35 year low in 1978 (65.01).  The QB Rating is still one of the top statistics discussed when comparing quarterbacks from current and past generations.  This rating is not a flawless statistic, and it doesn't take in every aspect of a quarterback, but I believe it can still be used to evaluate players.  That said, it must be used in context.  

For instance, in 1978 no NFL Quarterback (of qualified leaders) had a QB Rating at or over 85.56, but 15 players in 2012 had a rating better than 85.56.  Here are the top four QB's from 1978 and 2012:  

1978

Staubach - 84.9

Bradshaw - 84.7

Fouts - 83.0

Griese - 82.4

2012

A. Rodgers - 108.0

P. Manning - 105.8

Griffin III - 102.4

R. Wilson - 100.0

Oh, and in case you didn't notice, all four of those QB's from 1978 are Hall of Famers.  It's safe to say that Peyton Manning is going to the HOF and that Rodgers is on his way if he keeps up his current pace.  RGIII and Wilson are both rookies.  Yes, rookies.  RGIII set the NFL record for a rookie this season with his 102.4 passer rating (Roethlisberger 98.1), and Wilson broke the record as well with his 100.0.  Does that mean RGIII and Wilson are better quarterbacks than Staubach, Bradshaw, Fouts, and Griese?  No.  One would have to assume that the top four QB's of 1978 would be also benefit from the rule changes over the last 35 years.  RGIII and Wilson have many years ahead of them; if they consistently dominate this category when compared to their peers, than they would have more of an argument when compared to these Hall of Famers.  

2.  Here is a look at the top five QB (passer) Ratings of All-Time:

While the top three have come in the last decade, Young and Montana. produced those ratings prior to QB's being allowed to have radio communications in their helmets and before several rules were implemented to help protect QB's.  While Manning produced the biggest difference over the NFL average for his record year, I would say that Montana's QB rating is the most impressive when compared to the rules and the NFL average in 1989.

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Final Thoughts:

The point of this blog was not to devalue some of the great passing seasons we have seen recently in the NFL, it was to provide context.  The current rules have made it easier to complete passes and has decreased the likelihood a defender intercepting a pass.  The NFL is not consistently producing more yards per pass attempt or a higher touchdown pass percentage.

In the end, I believe the current rules allow the elite players to perform at a higher level (Rodgers, P. Manning, Brady, etc.), while at the same time it allowing the mediocre quarterbacks (Palmer, Cutler, Bradford, Freeman, etc.) to appear better than they truly are.

Let's not forget the flat out bad quarterbacks.  Honestly, does it take four seasons to realize Mark Sanchez is well below average in this or any NFL era.  His career 71.7 QB rating, combined with a 55.1% completion percentage says it all.  Get this, in every season from 1980 to now, Sanchez would have been considered below average with his career rating.  Imagine how low his QB rating and completition percentage would have been, if he was playing in the NFL 30 years ago.

Thanks for following the blog, enjoy the games this weekend.

The Legacy of NFL Head Coach Andy Reid. (Good or Bad?)

On what is known in the NFL as "Black Monday", the Philadelphia Eagles fired Head Coach Andy Reid after 14 seasons.

Now that 24 hours have past and the dust has settled a bit, I wanted to look back on Reid's coaching record .  A coach's legacy tends to be defined by wins and more importantly, championships.  Reid never won a Super Bowl Championship, but he did win a lot of games.

I thought it was important to compare Reid to his divisional opponents over the last 14 years.   Here is how the Eagles (Reid) stack up against divisional opponents since 1999:

You can see that Reid has done very well overall the last 14 years in and out of the division.  Get this, over the last 14 seasons only one NFC East team has gone undefeated (6-0) in the division during any regular season.  Yes, that team was the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles, who went on to lose to the New England Patriots in Reid's only Super Bowl appearance.  Unfortunately, the following season in 2005, the Eagles were winless (0-6) in divisional play - only the second NFC East team to do that in the last 14 seasons (09' Redskins).

What hurts Reid's legacy, is all of the playoff opportunities, yet no Super Bowl ring to show for it.  With two fewer playoff appearances, the New York Giants have managed the same number of playoff wins and two Super Bowl titles.  While the Eagles reached the NFC Championship game five times, they only won that game once (2004 season) during Reid's tenure as Head Coach.

I can see why some fans and NFL analysts will deem Andy Reid's time in Philly a success.  I can also see why some will argue that he couldn't win the big game and probably overstayed his welcome.  Many NFL fans (Cleveland comes to mind) would love to have their team go to the playoffs 9 times in 14 seasons (including one Super Bowl appearance since 1999).  Well, we are talking about Philadelphia and their fans expect titles.

The Eagles finished the 2012 regular season with a 4-12 record (their worst record since 98', 3-13).  Reid's team missed the playoffs for the second straight season, marking the first time in his tenure that the Eagles missed the playoffs in back to back seasons.  Reid is 0-2 his last two playoff appearances, with his most recent playoff win came during the 2008 Post-Season.

So what will Andy Reid's legacy be in Philadelphia?  It's a tough call.  If a legacy is defined by wins, Reid was a success.  If a legacy is defined by Super Bowl titles, then Reid was a failure.  Either way, I believe it was time for Reid to go and that he will land on his feet.  I think a move across the country will do wonders for him.  Somewhere like......sunny Arizona:)

In closing, I would like to give Mr. Reid one piece of advice.  Before your next job interview, please remove the "roadkill" from your upper-lip.