Like me, you've probably heard many retired NFL quarterbacks talk about how much easier it is to play the position in today's NFL. Over the years, rule changes have favored not only the offense, but the QB specifically. I decided to look back on the last 35 years of NFL passing statistics, to not only educate myself on current trends, but to also inform other NFL fans. These statistics go back to 1978, which is the first season NFL teams played a 16 game regular season schedule.
Some of these stats might not surprise you and I'm not trying to prove something we already know (the NFL is a QB driven league. That said, I think this type of research can help us all when comparing quarterbacks from other generations (decades), especially when determining who is and isn't elite (or even average).
* Disclaimer - I do understand that statistics don't tell the entire story for a player, but they do play a major role in my opinion.
Enjoy.
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First, let's take a look at pass attempts per game per team:
Observations:
1. You can see that the general trend in passing attempts has gone up the last 35 years, but a closer look shows that it's actually been up and down the last 20 years (1993 to present).
2. In 1978 the NFL changed a rule that permitted a defender to maintain contact with a receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, but prohibited them from making contact past that point. 1978 to 1981 appears to be the adjustment period in the NFL, and explains the sharp increase in passing attempts over the next 4 years.
3. The highest number of attempts in the last 35 years, came in 1995 with 34.79 attempts per team per game. 1995 was also the first season NFL quarterbacks were allowed to have radio communications in their helmets. It wasn't until 2009, that one defensive player could have radio communications as well.
4. In most cases, the difference in between years is only 1 or 2 pass attempts a game.
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Now let's take a look at the NFL average Yards per Pass Attempt (YPA) per year:
Observations:
1. Yards per attempt (YPA), otherwise known as "average yards gained per attempt" is one of four statistics used in calculating the NFL Quarterback rating.
2. This data set was very interesting. While last season was the highest yards per attempt over the last 35 years at 7.20, you can see that in 1983 the YPA was 7.18 (very close).
3. This data has been up and down over the last 35 years. The lowest YPA over this period of time came in 2003 with 6.64 (not that long ago). One could conclude that based on yardage alone, it hasn't become drastically more beneficial to pass the ball in the NFL.
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Now, let's take a look at completion percentage:
Observations:
1. Completions percentage is also one of four statistics used in calculating the NFL QB rating.
2. Without question, this statistic has been trending up over the last 35 years.
- The 1978 to 1980 increase could be associated with the previously noted rule change only allowing contact with a receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.
3. In 1988, the NFL went from a 30 second play clock to a 45 second play clock. Could this have contributed to the a consistent increase in QB inaccuracy up until 1995? I think giving a QB more time at the line of scrimmage would only help their performance, so my answer would be "YES."
4. By 1996 the NFL reemphasized the "5 yard contact rule" and made efforts that it would be "more strictly" enforced. This would only add to a QB's effectiveness by giving the receivers added advantage over the defender. The impact didn't happen immediately, but I believe over time it's effect on these statistics is clear. (Note: The 5 consecutive seasons of increasing completion percentage 1998 to 2002)
5. Another rule change in 2002, made it illegal to hit a QB helmet to helmet at anytime after a change of possession. That was followed by the 2006 rule change that prohibited "defenders from hitting the passer at or below the knee, unless blocked into them."
6. Notice in 2007 we see the highest completion percentage in the last 35 years with 61.2%. That same year, the NFL changed the rule for a completed catch. A receiver was no longer required to make "a football move", they only needed two feet down and control of the ball.
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Next is the NFL passing touchdown percentage (what percent of passes are touchdown passes):
Observations:
1. The TD % statistic is one of the four statistics used to calculate the NFL QB rating.
2. The 35 year history of this statistic is the opposite of completion percentage. Statistically speaking, you could not find a correlation between the NFL rule changes and passing touchdown percentage. You have to go back to 1987 to find the highest passing touchdown percentage at 4.53%. The lowest percentage was in 1993 at 3.59%.
3. The chances of scoring a passing touchdown have not truly increased or decreased over the last 35 years. The trend line is almost flat, which basically indicates no trend at all.
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With the good (TD%) must come the bad (INT%) - Interception percentage per attempt.
Observations:
1. Interception percentage is one of four statistics used in calculating the NFL QB rating.
2. This is the most telling statistic of all in my opinion. While YPA and TD% have been up and down, interception percentage (INT %) has plummeted in the NFL over the last 35 years. In fact, this season produced the lowest interception percentage in the last 35 years with 2.63%. Does this mean QB's are making better decisions than in past years? Not necessarily. Sure there are more quarterback camps now days for High School kids and technology has made it easier to study film/defenses, but the bottom line is the defenders have been consistently handcuffed by new rules over the last 35 years.
I'm not telling you something you don't already know. What I hope you are starting to figure out is that just because QB's are breaking some records and posting more impressive numbers every year, that doesn't mean these players are superior to those that preceded them.
3. Only 7 times in last 35 years have there been more interceptions in a season than touchdown passes (78' - 82', 85', and 92'). It's been 20 years since there have been more interceptions thrown in the NFL than touchdown passes during a single season.
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It's the one you've all been wait for, the NFL QB Rating (aka Passer Rating):
* Please note in combined NFL team statistics, yards lost due to sacks are subtracted from the teams total passing yards, this produces an inaccurate QB rating since sack yards are not subtracted from individual player statistics prior to calculating the QB rating. Therefore, I did not subtract yards lost due to sacks when calculating the annual QB rating for the NFL.
Observations:
1. This statistic really says it all about what has happened to the quarterback position. This year's average QB (passer) rating of 85.56 is 20.55 points higher than the 35 year low in 1978 (65.01). The QB Rating is still one of the top statistics discussed when comparing quarterbacks from current and past generations. This rating is not a flawless statistic, and it doesn't take in every aspect of a quarterback, but I believe it can still be used to evaluate players. That said, it must be used in context.
For instance, in 1978 no NFL Quarterback (of qualified leaders) had a QB Rating at or over 85.56, but 15 players in 2012 had a rating better than 85.56. Here are the top four QB's from 1978 and 2012:
1978
Staubach - 84.9
Bradshaw - 84.7
Fouts - 83.0
Griese - 82.4
2012
A. Rodgers - 108.0
P. Manning - 105.8
Griffin III - 102.4
R. Wilson - 100.0
Oh, and in case you didn't notice, all four of those QB's from 1978 are Hall of Famers. It's safe to say that Peyton Manning is going to the HOF and that Rodgers is on his way if he keeps up his current pace. RGIII and Wilson are both rookies. Yes, rookies. RGIII set the NFL record for a rookie this season with his 102.4 passer rating (Roethlisberger 98.1), and Wilson broke the record as well with his 100.0. Does that mean RGIII and Wilson are better quarterbacks than Staubach, Bradshaw, Fouts, and Griese? No. One would have to assume that the top four QB's of 1978 would be also benefit from the rule changes over the last 35 years. RGIII and Wilson have many years ahead of them; if they consistently dominate this category when compared to their peers, than they would have more of an argument when compared to these Hall of Famers.
2. Here is a look at the top five QB (passer) Ratings of All-Time:
While the top three have come in the last decade, Young and Montana. produced those ratings prior to QB's being allowed to have radio communications in their helmets and before several rules were implemented to help protect QB's. While Manning produced the biggest difference over the NFL average for his record year, I would say that Montana's QB rating is the most impressive when compared to the rules and the NFL average in 1989.
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Final Thoughts:
The point of this blog was not to devalue some of the great passing seasons we have seen recently in the NFL, it was to provide context. The current rules have made it easier to complete passes and has decreased the likelihood a defender intercepting a pass. The NFL is not consistently producing more yards per pass attempt or a higher touchdown pass percentage.
In the end, I believe the current rules allow the elite players to perform at a higher level (Rodgers, P. Manning, Brady, etc.), while at the same time it allowing the mediocre quarterbacks (Palmer, Cutler, Bradford, Freeman, etc.) to appear better than they truly are.
Let's not forget the flat out bad quarterbacks. Honestly, does it take four seasons to realize Mark Sanchez is well below average in this or any NFL era. His career 71.7 QB rating, combined with a 55.1% completion percentage says it all. Get this, in every season from 1980 to now, Sanchez would have been considered below average with his career rating. Imagine how low his QB rating and completition percentage would have been, if he was playing in the NFL 30 years ago.
Thanks for following the blog, enjoy the games this weekend.
I think you're focusing too much on rule changes and neglecting a more obvious answer: schemes. QBs are throwing the ball short more often. They're throwing the ball in the red zone more often. They're throwing the ball more often in general, but what they're doing less of relative to the QBs at the left end of your chart is throwing it downfield on one- or two-man vertical patterns. When Bradshaw dropped back to pass he had a couple guys running 9s and had to decide who to chuck it to, or whether to dump it off. When Rodgers... ok Rodgers is a bad comparison, because McCarthy is calling the plays so we're going to see a whole bunch of verticals. But when Manning or Brady or whoever drops back to pass, they have 4-5 options, they have guys stretching the field both horizontally and vertically, they have timing routes and new kinds of screens and sight adjustments and all sorts of things that didn't exist back when Bradshaw and Staubach were playing. QB Rating is an efficiency stat -- it likes you to be consistent, so it's happier when a guy is completing 2/3 of his passes for 7 yards at a time. When the league's passing game is based on high risk/high reward play action bombs and vertical stretches to the point that the average completion percentage was 10-15 points lower than it is now, the QB rating is obviously going to become displeased. You're right that the current guys having bigger numbers doesn't prove that they're better, of course, but take a look at your charts again: we can go back to specific years when changes were made, ie. the 1994 chuck rule or its 'Polian rule' re-emphasis a decade later. We don't see a corresponding spike in QB rating, plunge in Int%, etc, just a continuation of a trend that's been going on since 1978 according to your numbers. You also imply that defenders have been facing increasingly-hostile rules (and rule interpretations) consistently for 35+ years straight, but this simply isn't the case as the early-2000s Colts will attest. The 'Polian Rule' was not a new rule, after all - it was about getting refs to call the 5-yard chuck penalty that had been on the books since 1994, and had the defenders been suffering that rule's effects equally throughout the entire time frame in question there would have been no need to re-emphasize it.
ReplyDeleteAnd to borrow a point from (I believe) Doug Farrar: rules have been getting more restrictive, but defenses have also been getting incredibly complex. There was nothing remotely like a Rex Ryan amoeba front in Staubach's time, and though the zone blitz was invented in the early '70s it didn't spread until LeBeau made it famous in the '90s. Staubach was lining up looking at simple shell defenses, straight man coverage, etc. that any quarterback in today's NFL could dissect without blinking. The game has evolved in all aspects, and trying to chalk it all up to rule changes simply doesn't wash.
Thanks for your very detailed opinion. While you say I'm "focusing too much on rule changes and neglecting a more obvious answer", I say you are neglecting the rule changes for defenders and the push for more QB safety.
ReplyDeleteAgree to disagree:)
Please leave your name and/or website next time. Again, thanks for the feedback, I see you put a lot of thought into it.