Calvin Johnson Jr vs Jerry Rice and chasing an NFL record....but what about Charley

Before Calvin Johnson or Jerry Rice, there was Houston Oilers Wide Receiver Charles "Charley" Hennigan.

You may not know Charley, but in 1961 he set the NFL single season record for receiving yards with 1,746.    Oh, and Charley did it in a 14 game season on 82 receptions (21.3 avg).

I only bring up Mr. Hennigan for added perspective as Calvin Johnson tries to break this same record currently held by Jerry Rice at 1,848 yards.  Johnson is 181 yards behind Rice with two games left in the regular season.  Tonight in a special Saturday Night Fooball game on ESPN (8:30pm EST), Johnson could break the record at home versus the Atlanta Falcons.  Remember, he posted a 207 yard game earlier this season in November versus the Vikings.  So while it's not likely, it's possible that NFL fans will see a record broken tonight.

As an NFL fan, I really enjoy watching a player chase records, for that reason I wanted to provide you with a comparison between Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson.  I will focus on the first 14 games of Rice's record breaking season in 1995 (with Hennigan's season included).  I will also take a look at some career comparison later on in this blog post.

Here is how all three wide receivers stack up after 14 games:

The first thing that jumps out at me in this table, is that Rice is so far behind Hennigan and Johnson after 14 games.  The other thing that is clear, is that Hennigan was flat out dominate during the 1961 season.  Hennigan's average per reception was head and shoulders above Rice and Johnson, and he had the best rate of receptions per touchdown with 6.8.

You may be wondering how Jerry Rice broke this record with only two games left while being 340 yards behind.  The answer ..  Rice absolutely destroyed the Vikings in week 15 with, 14 receptions for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns.  By the way, San Francisco needed all the help it could get that week, as the pulled out the win 37-30.  Going into the final week of the season, Rice needed just 52 yards to break the record.  Coincidentally, Rice faced the Falcons that week.  While the Niners lost the game 27-28, Rice easily broke the record with 12 receptions for 153 yards.  He finished the season with 1,848 yards receiving (115.5 YPG) with 15 touchdowns (plus 1 rushing touchdown).

At Calvin Johnson's current pace, he will break the record with approximately 1,905 yards.  If Johnson breaks the record tonight, it will be the 2nd time the Falcons have allowed this record to be broken against them.  My guess is, the Falcons don't want to be that team twice.

On the season, the Falcons allow 229.5 passing yards per game (151 yards to opposing WR's per game).  They have only allowed three wide receivers to break the century mark this year, with the highest total going to Lance Moore (NO) in week 13 with his 123 yards.  Johnson has faced the Falcons twice in his career.  Last season he posted 5 receptions for 115 yards (1 TD), and back in 2008 he produced 7 receptions for 107 yards.  That's a pretty good track record for Johnson versus the Falcons.  The Falcons won't make it easy, but I wouldn't bet against Johnson.

In the opinions of most around football, Calvin "Megatron" Johnson is the best wide receiver in the NFL right now.  So, why not compare Johnson's first six seasons with Rice's first six seasons.

Here is how they matchup:

You can see that Rice leads in most categories, except receptions.  PLEASE NOTE - Johnson still has the two remaining games to finish his 6th season.  The biggest difference is in touchdowns.  There's nothing to be ashamed of for Johnson, Rice is the All-Time leader in touchdowns.  If Johnson is similar to Rice and continues to excel well into his 30's, he'll definitely have a shot to approach some of Rice's career numbers.  Remember, Rice set the single season record for receiving yards at the age of 33.

Final thoughts:

This blog post started by discussing Charles Hennigan.  I'll be honest with you, I didn't know much if anything about Charley before putting together this post.  That said, I'm extremely glad that I was able to educate myself on his career.  He deserves the attention.

Charley Hennigan played 7 seasons in the AFL (NFL) all with the Houston Oilers.  He finished his career with:  410 receptions, 6,823 yards (16.6 avg), and 51 touchdowns (Per NFL.com).  He still holds the NFL record for games in a season with 200 or more receiving yards with 3 (during his 1961 record season).  He is tied with Michael Irvin and Calvin Johnson for most consecutive games of 100 or more receiving yards with 7 (Johnson can break this record tonight as well if he has another 100 yard game).

To this day, only Jerry Rice (1,848) and Isaac Bruce (1,781) have had more receiving yards in a single season than Charley.

Either tonight or next week, Calvin Johnson will most likely break the record of Jerry Rice.  While NFL fans celebrate Johnson's achievements, let's also reflect and learn about those who came before him.

Enjoy the game tonight, I know I will.  As always, thank you for following my blog.

Fantasy Football Week 16 Sleepers and Deep Sleepers.

Week 16 is the Fantasy Football Championship in many leagues, while other teams are still trying to get to the title match-up   Either way, it's the single most important week in fantasy football.  Like last week, this blog will focus on low ownership players who could help you win your week 16 match-up.  I'm not trying to pick who will be the best overall this week.  Instead, I'm trying to give suggestions for managers in deep leagues or who don't mind making some high risk/high reward moves.  In general, these suggestions will be most useful for deeper leagues.  Enjoy and feel free to comment below.

* Please note - All of these suggestions are less than 40% owned based on Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football, with most of them owned in less than 20% of leagues.  


Here are my week 16 suggestions:

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson - SEA (39% owned, up 6% from last week) vs S.F.

In case you missed out on Wilson last week (#1 Fantasy QB for week 15), you will have another chance this week.  He's still only 39% owned.  Over the last 4 weeks, only Tom Brady and Cam Newton have scored more fantasy points than Wilson at the QB position.

On paper, this is a very tough match-up for Wilson.  The 49er defense is no joke.  That said, you should not ignore how well Wilson has played at home this year.  He has a 118.4 QB rating and a 12:1 TD to INT ratio at home.  

It's no secret that he struggled at S.F. in week 7, but since then, he has 13 TD passes to just 2 INT's and has rushed for another 3 TD's (all last week).  Wilson is on fire right now and should not be overlooked just because he faces the 49ers.  

If you think the Niner defense is just too much for Wilson, remember that Christian Ponder threw for 2 TD's and rushed for another against this same defense during a week 3 match-up in Minnesota.  Not to mention, Sam Bradford, who posted a 92.7 QB Rating (496 passing yards, 2 TD's, 0 Ints, and 66.7 comp %) in two games against the Niners this year.  

Wilson could still be a top 10 QB this week, despite facing a very good defense.


Ryan Tannehill - MIA (9% owned) vs BUF

Tannehill hasn't be talked about as much as the big 3 rookie QB's, but he has held his own this season.  He has a great matchup at home versus a Bills team that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year.  

Tannehill struggled against Buffalo on the road in week 11 (8.34 fantasy poinst, yahoo default scoring), but he's coming off his best statistical game last week (21 fantasy points).  On the other hand, the Bills have little to play for and their defense is coming off a 50-17 drubbing from the Seahawks last week. 

If you have a QB with a tough matchup this week, consider taking a calculated risk on Tannehill.  I would seriously consider starting him at home over players like:  Roethlisberger, Dalton, Rivers, and even Stafford.




Nick Foles - PHI (9% owned) vs WAS

Yes, this is the 3rd rookie QB I'm recommending this week.  Foles is not as well known as Wilson and Tannehill, but he has talent and is facing a Redskin defense that has given up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QB's this year.  Like Wilson and Tannehill, Foles struggled against his week 16 opponent on the road earlier this year.  Don't discount how hard it is to win on the road in the NFL, let alone as a rookie QB.

Over the last 3 weeks, Foles has thrown for 812 yards, 4 TD's, and only 1 INT (plus 1 rushing TD).  I would take Wilson or Tannehill over Foles this week, but he should be on your short list of QB sleepers.  


Running Backs

Danny Woodhead - N.E. (38% owned) @ JAX

If you're like me, you were watching the NE/SF game last week and noticed that Woodhead was the only New England RB who didn't fumble.  He was rewarded with touches and ended up leading the Patriots in carries (12), rushing yards (61), and TD's (2).  He also added 5 receptions for 23 yards.  The undersized RB was 4th in scoring at his position in week 15 (21.3 yahoo default, 21 ESPN default).    

Now, I'm not saying Woodhead will repeat those numbers and he his touches have been very inconsistent this year.  That said, New England is still fighting for a 1st round bye and Coach Belichick won't hesitate to use Woodhead if the other RB's continue to put the ball on the ground.  

While Steven Ridley has been the clear #1 RB for the Pats this season, last week marked the fewest carries he received in a game all year (9).  It's not much of a reach, to think Woodhead will see an increased role in week 16 as a result his performance last week.

Woodhead would be a good Flex option and a low end RB2 in my opinion.  He's an even better play in PPR leagues.  I snagged him in my most competitive leagues before last week's game was over.  He's worth a pickup just to prevent your opponent from using him against you:)  


Curtis Brinkley - S.D. (4% owned) @ NYJ

While many fantasy owner will run to pickup Jackie Battle (13% owned) to replace the injured Charger RB Ryan Matthews, I would rather take my chances with Brinkley.  Battle may receive the bulk of short yardage and goal line carries, but Brinkley offers more to the Charger offense in my opinion.  Last week, Brinkley had 9 touches to just 5 touches for Battle in Matthew's absence.  It also doesn't hurt that the Jets are in total shutdown mode (benching Sanchez and starting McElroy) and their defense has given up the 7th most points against to opposing RB's.

Along with Battle, Ronnie Brown will also factor into the Chargers plan at RB this week.  I would recommend Brinkley as a low end flex play, with PPR upside.

Mike Goodson - OAK (4% owned) @ CAR

Yes, Darren McFadden had a season-high 30 carries last week (plus 4 catches) and he appears to be healthy, but let's not forget who he is.  He's an injury waiting to happen and after a work load like that, can he really be trusted to repeat?  I don't think so.  

That brings me to Goodson, who had 13 carries of his own last week for 89 yards.  He also added one catch for 14 yards.  He is the clear backup to McFadden right now and will be facing his former team this week.  Goodson has a lot to play for, while most of the Raiders are getting ready for their long vacation.  

I won't lie, this is a big reach, but Carolina has given up the 8th most points to opposing RB's and Goodson has the explosiveness to take one to the house.  Consider Goodson a risky flex play with upside.    

Wide Receivers

Leonard Hankerson - WAS (4% owned) @ PHI

Who is Leonard Hankerson?  Well, he was the 7th highest scoring fantasy WR in week 15 (17.6 points Yahoo default, 17 points ESPN default).  Hankerson is a gifted 2nd year WR out of Miami U who just can't find consistent touches in the Redskin offense.  He has made the most of his touches the last two weeks (6 catches/8 targets, 123 yards and 2 TDs).

This week, the Redskins face an Eagles defense that has given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WR's (3rd most TD's to WR's).    Last time out versus the Eagles, Hankerson only received two targets that resulted in 2 receptions for 30 yards.  That's probably not going encourage you to pickup up Hankerson, but  it should be noted, that in the first match-up  the Skins rushed the ball 34 times to only 15 passes while cruising to a 31 to 6 vicory.  

If the Eagles can compete at home this week, the Skins may be forced to throw the ball more which will increase Hankerson's opportunities.  The Redskins are still trying to make the playoffs and possibly win the division.  The Eagles season is lost, but they might have extra motivation to beat the Redskins in what is sure to be Andy Reid's final home game as Eagles HC.  Not to mention this is a great rivalry and keeping a divisional opponent out of the playoffs is also a great motivator.   


Rod Streater - OAK (4% owned) @ CAR

In his last 3 games, Streater has produced, 12 catches/17 targets for 258 yards (21.5 avg) and 1 TD.  That production is #1 on the Raiders over that time frame.

While WR Moore (22) and TE Myers (19) have more targets than Streater over the last 3 weeks, they haven't been able to match his production.  As a matter of fact, of those 19 targets for Myers, 15 came in one game against Cleveland.

Streater and the Raiders face a tough match-up at Carolina this week (26th most fantasy points against to opposing WR's).  If you are scrabbling to find a WR3 or a Flex play, you could should consider Streater.  


Joseph Morgan - N.O. (1% owned) @ DAL

On the season, Morgan has 9 catches/20 targets for 371 yards and 3 TD's.  That's not great.  So why am I talking about him?  Because any player that averages 41.2 yards per catch is on my radar, especially when the majority of his production has come in the last 4 weeks (6 catches/9 targets for 238 yards and 1 TD).

Morgan is a true boom or bust type WR at this point, lucky for him he has Drew Brees at QB.  While he may not get many targets, he has made them count.  The fact that he is seeing more action as of late, only adds to his value.  

The Cowboys are 14th in points against to opposing WR's, so they are somewhat vulnerable.  The great thing about owning a Saints WR is that you know they are in a pass heavy offense (3rd in the NFL in attempts, 1st in TD passes).  

This is the last stat I will mention about Morgan.  Right now, Morgan scores a TD every 3 receptions.  That's ridiculous.  Green Bay WR James Jones leads the NFL with 12 TD receptions, on only 51 total catches.  In other words, Jones catches a TD every 4.25 receptions.  I'm not saying Morgan is as good a fantasy start as James Jones, but you can see the potential if he get's his touches.  The average NFL Wide Receiver catches a TD every 12.7 receptions.   He is a sneaky WR3 play and could even be a Flex option in deeper leagues.  If you are in a keeper league, you should be watching him very closely.  

Tight Ends

Mercedes Lewis - JAX (16% owned) vs N.E.

In week 16, Lewis faces a Patriot defense that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing TE's this year.  Jacksonville should be playing from behind for most of this game and will need to pass just to try and keep up with an angry Tom Brady and Co.  Look for Lewis to be heavily involved as this game progresses.  

Lewis is a respectable 8th among Tight Ends in Redzone targets.  New England's defense is 29th in passing yards (283.7) allowed and has given up the 3rd most passing TD's (26).  If the Jags can move the ball, Lewis should get his opportunities.  Don't be surprised if Lewis doesn't do much the first half, but ends up with some very good garbage time stats by the end of the game.


Lance Kendricks - STL (1% owned) @ T.B.

This might be the biggest stretch of all this week.  Kendricks will face a Bucs defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing TE's.  To date, Kendricks is 4th on the Rams in total targets (55).  He has 35 receptions for 367 yards and 3 TD's.  He has seen 20 targets the last 4 weeks which have resulted in 2 of his 3 TD's.  Last week, he was 9th in scoring for the TE position with 9.5 (Yahoo default).  

The fact that the majority of Kendricks' production has come in his last 6 games is a very good sign that he is trending up.  He is only in his 2nd season and is not a bad target for deep keeper league managers. 

Technically, the Rams still have an outside chance (1%) to make the playoffs.  They will be playing for their first winning season since 2003 (12-4), at 6-7-1 they have a decent shot.  

While the Rams will be very motivated on Sunday, I doubt the Bucs will.  They've been eliminated from playoff contention and basically gave up last week.   

Starting Kendricks this week is not for the faint of heart, it's a big risk that could result in a nice return. 


Kickers

Like I said last week, Kickers are a crap-shot and I wait until late Saturday or even Sunday morning to fill the position.  I believe in streaming this position so that I can have more options to work the wire during the week.

Adam Vinatieri - IND (28% owned) @ K.C.

I am suggesting Vinatieri solely because the Chiefs are a horrible team that has zero to play for, but do come up with defensive stops from time to time (that is good for a kicker).  The Colts have locked up a playoff spot, but want to keep the momentum going with their young team.  The other consideration for Vinatieri is that he has no problem kicking outdoors.

Nate Kaeding - MIA (0% owned) vs BUF

It's this simple, the Bills defense is horrible (last in PPG allowed at 28.7) and they are coming off a game in which they gave up 50 points.  Kaeding was just signed by Miami to replace Dan Carpenter who was placed on the IR.  Kaeding was 7/7 on FG's the first 3 weeks of the season with the Chargers, but was placed on the IR himself and later released by the team.  He is now healthy again and ready to kick this Sunday.

Prior to his injury, Carpenter was 2nd in scoring for kickers over the last 4 weeks (40 points).  This tells me that the Dolphins will give Kaeding some opportunities this week against the Bills. 

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The Kicker position will drive a fantasy manager nuts throughout the season, but they are capable of putting up some serious points for your fantasy team.  

Here are the top scoring kickers for each of the last four weeks:

Week 15 - Blair Walsh (MIN, 38% owned) 25 points 
Week 14 - Steven Hauschka (SEA, 5% owned) 16 points
Week 13 - Jason Hanson (DET, 84% owned) 18 points
Week 12 - Rob Bironas (TEN, 27% owned) 14 points

Does any other position offer that much opportunity to own the leading scoring at the position each week?  I don't think so.  Notice only Hanson is highly owned, the others would have been available for most owners to pickup on Sunday morning.  Good luck with kickers.



Defense

Indianapolis Colts @ KC

This pick isn't about the Colts great defense, because the really are not that great (27th in Yahoo Fantasy points).  This pick is about how bad the Chiefs offense has been this season.  No offense scores fewer points than the Chiefs (13.9 per game).  Last week, Oakland's defense scored 16 fantasy points while shutting out KC.

I would have no problem rolling with Indy this week to win a championship.  

Carolina Panthers vs. OAK

Remember, this blog is not about advising fantasy managers to do the obvious, it's about taking some chances and utilizing the match-ups.  This pick is similar to the Indy pick, the opponent is a big factor.  The Raider offense is 26th in scoring at 18.8 PPG, and on the road they are even worse at 15.8 PPG. The Raiders haven't played a road game in almost a month (11/25 @ CIN), which was a 34-10 loss.  

The Raiders are 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.  I don't believe that is a good representation of how they perform on the road, let alone on the East coast.  

If you don't have a top Fantasy Defense/ST like:  SF, SEA, DEN, or HOU, don't be afraid to run with the Panthers this week, they just might surprise you.

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I know many fantasy managers are not in the championship hunt, but there is still a lot to play for.  Maybe, you take pride in finishing top 3 in your fantasy leagues (I do).  If you are not in the title game, taking home 3rd can still be rewarding in a competitive league.  Maybe, you have a rivalry (bragging rights) match-up against a fellow manager.  Whatever the reason, the Fantasy Football season is not over for you.  

If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, there are still a lot of gems that can be found late in the year.  I remember picking up Arian Foster in week 16 (2009) of my Keeper League (Est. in 2001).  I decided to keep him through the off-season because he played so well those last two weeks.  Of course, now he is a top 3 fantasy RB.  I don't tell you that to brag, just that you can still improve your team for next year, but you must stay active.

I don't like losing, so I play every league until the very last game.  Good luck to all of you.  For those who will be playing in week 17, see you next week.

Thanks for reading my blog.

Fact or Myth? Tom Brady is an elite QB in terms of deep passing.

How many times have you heard the NFL analyst or commentators talk about how great Tom Brady's deep ball is?  I've heard it many times.  Unfortunately for NFL fans, many commentators don't really study ALL available statistics and they fall prey to perception.  Many fans rely on the commentators to provide accurate analysis.  When fans talk around the water cooler on Monday morning they will be reciting information they heard during the broadcast.  My goal with this post is to give you an example of how perception is not reality and not everything your hear during a game is accurate.

                                               Photo courtesy of www.bleachereport.com

So, does Tom Brady have a great deep ball?  Is he one of the most accurate deep passers in the NFL?  Below, I will give you the answer.

* These deep passing statistics were gathered from www.ProFootballFocus.com, they define a deep pass as being targeted 20 or more yards down-field   The drops tracked in these tables were considered "catchable" drops and are calculated in the QB's favor for Deep Accuracy purposes.  In other words, a QB is not penalized for a receiver dropping a "catchable" pass. 
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You can see in the first table that Tom Brady is actually below the NFL average since 2008 and slightly above average since 2010.  Please note - Brady was injured the first game of the 2008 season and only attempted 1 deep pass.  Based on these statistics, Brady is far from an elite deep passer.  

I included the statistics for Aaron Rodgers, because he is also known for being a great deep passer.  In the case of Rodgers, he is being accurately described by NFL analyst and commentators, while Brady is not.

                                          Photo courtesy of www.thesportsbank.net

I included Drew Brees, because he doesn't get much credit for his deep passing skills.  If you asked the average NFL fan, "Who is better at deep passing, Brees or Brady?", I believe most fans would answer Brady.

The fact is, Rodgers and Brees are head and shoulders above Brady when it comes to deep passing.  So when your watching Sunday Night Football (Niners vs. Patriots) tonight, listen to how the commentators describe Tom Brady and know that you have the facts about his deep passing abilities.

MYTH - Tom Brady is an elite QB in terms of deep passing.

FACT - The ball looks pretty when it leaves Tom Brady's hand.

I encourage all NFL fans to do your own research, you will be amazed at how often the NFL commentators and analysts are wrong.

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BTW - I tweeted this information to NBC commentator Chris Collinsworth and sideline reporter Andrea Kremer, just in case the don't have time to research it:)

Fantasy Football advice for week 15 - including some deep sleepers

In most fantasy football leagues, week 15 of the NFL season is the first round of the playoffs.  Some leagues play all 17 weeks, so this week is the last chance to make the playoffs.  Either way, week 15 is extremely important in the world of fantasy football.

* Please note - All of these suggestions are less than 50% owned based on Yahoo Sports Fantasy Football, with most of them owned in less than 30% of leagues.  If you need to replace an injured player or are in a deeper league, you should consider using these players for week 15 based on match-ups and playing time.

Here are my suggestions:

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson - SEA (33% owned) at BUF, but played in Toronto

Wilson has struggled on the road this year with an 80.7 QB rating compared to 118.4 at home.  That said, his last two games on the road have been excellent with a 125.9 QB rating at Miami and a 104.9 rating at Chicago.  The other thing to consider with this "road" game, is that Toronto hasn't truly embraced the Bills, making it a friendlier environment than playing in Buffalo.

Wilson is surging at the right time of year.  In his last 5 games, he has a 10:1 touchdown to interception ratio and he has had a QB rating of at least 104.9 in all but one game.  In addition to his passing stats, he has added 310 rushing yards this season (4th best total for a QB).

The Bills defense has been playing better over the last half of the season, but if you have a tough QB matchup this week (Romo vs PIT or Flacco vs DEN) you might think about using Wilson instead.


Sam Bradford - KC (21% owned) vs MIN

Bradford has had an up and down season to say the least, but he is at home this week against the Vikings who give up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing QB's.  Interesting enough, Bradford as the exact same QB rating at home as he does on the road (81.9), so this pick is more about the Vikings and their below average pass defense.

The Vikings have giving up 21 touchdown passes this year to only 9 interceptions.  The 9 INT's are tied for 24th in NFL, needless to say the Vikes are not ballhawks.

If you are in a deep league or are not sold on your other QB options this week, Bradford is a safe pickup.  I would take Wilson over Bradford though.


Chad Henne - JAX (9% owned, SLEEPER ALERT) at MIA

I know you might be thinking that I'm crazy with this suggestion, but let me explain.  While Miami is good against the pass (only 15 TDs allowed), they do give up a lot of yards (250.6 per game).  This pick is not for the conservative fantasy player, but Henne has a good chance to put up respectable numbers this week.

Over the last four weeks Henne has thrown for 1002 yards (11th in NFL during that time) and 7 TD's (Tied for 5th in NFL during that time).  He has averaged 36 attempts over that four week span.  Another plus in Henne's favor, is the return of his explosive wide receiver Cecil Shorts who missed last week's game.  Shorts had scored a TD in four straight games from week 10 through 13, prior to getting injured.

Last, but not least, is the fact that Henne is returning to Miami to play against his former team.  He should be very motivated to play well and may be able to take advantage of his former teammates.


Running backs

Alex Green - GB (29% owned)

Green does not have a huge upside in my opinion, but his is currently number one the Packers depth chart and for that reason he should probably be owned in more fantasy leagues.  He is coming off a 13 carry, 69 yard effort last week.  He also had one catch, but it was for -3 yards.

On paper, Green has a tough match-up this week in Chicago, but the Bears run defense has taken a beating the last four weeks.  Chicago has giving up an average of 145.5 yards on ground over the last four weeks, plus four rushing touchdowns.  Granted, they had to face AP (twice), Lynch, and Gore during that stretch.  To make matters worse for Chicago, they will be without Pro Bowl MLB Brian Urlacher this week due a hamstring injury.

While I don't believe Green will reach the century mark week, I like his chances of scoring his first TD of the season.  Consider him a good flex play or low end RB2.

Montell Owens - JAX (26% owned)

If any fantasy owner knew who Owens was prior to week 13, I would be very surprised.  The Jags have been plagued by injuries to running backs this year and Owens is the last man standing.  If you didn't want to take a chance on him last week, you missed out on 102 total yards (91 rushing) and 1 TD.  Mr. Owens was a top 15 running back last week (12th in Yahoo Scoring).

While Owens will probably not be a top 15 RB this week, he should crack the top 20.  The Jags are on the road in Miami, going against a defense that is good at stopping they run.  Miami is 21st in points against to opposing RB's, regardless Owens should be started in most leagues this week.

I believe this is a low risk pickup and a great RB2/Flex option this week.


Robert Turbin - SEA (3% owned, SLEEPER ALERT) at BUF (in Toronto)

If you own Marshawn Lynch, you probably already know who Robert Turbin is.  For everyone else, it's time to pay attention and get to know Turbin.  He is already a must handcuff for a Lynch owner, but moving forward he could be a decent flex play in week 15 and 16, with the potential to be a top 15 running back in week 17.

Last week while Seattle was blowing out Arizona, Turbin got a significant number of carries for the first time this season and he didn't disappoint (20 carries for 108 yards).  Turbin did all of this while spelling Lynch for the first 3 quarters and getting the majority of the carries in the 4th quarter.

With the exception of their week 16 game against the Niners at home, Seattle goes up against the Bills and the Rams to finish the season.  It's not a stretch to think that Seattle could get significant leads in those games and choose to rest Lynch as much as possible going into the playoffs.  While Lynch has not missed any time this year, he has been dealing with back issues for several weeks now.

On the season, Turbin has 290 yards rushing and 15 receptions for 152 yards.  If you are a Lynch owner who has their Championship game during week 17, I would highly advise you to pickup Turbin (NOW).  If you are in a keeper league and own Lynch, Turbin is a must handcuff as well.


Wide Receivers

Donny Avery - IND (29% owned)

Is Donny Avery boring?  Yes, he is.  Is Donny Avery the #2 option on the Colts?  Yes, he is that as well.

Only Matt Stafford has attempted more passes than Andrew Luck and the Colts.  The fact that the #2 receiving option on Colts is only owned in 29% of leagues is amazing to me.  If you are in a league that utilizes 3 WR's or 2 WR's and a Flex postion, Avery should be on your radar this week.

Did you know that the Texans defense has given up the 6th fantasy points to WR's this year?  Get this, over the last four weeks, the Texans have given up an average of 356 yards passing per game to go along with 11 TD's.  During that stretch, they faced:  Brady, Henne, Stafford, and Locker.  I believe Andrew Luck can post similar numbers and Avery is going to be heavily involved.

The bonus - If you do pick up Avery, he will play the Texans again in Week 17.  For managers who have a championship in week 17, you get to take advantage of this match-up twice.

Chris Givens - STL (29% owned)

No one on the Rams has been targeted more the last 4 weeks than Givens (37 targets).  Some fantasy owners might be worried about the return of Danny Amendola hurting the value of Givens, don't be.  Givens is the type of player that stretches the field and plays on the outside, while Amendola is a slot WR.  Amendola's return will cost Austin Pettis reps, not Givens.

The Rams are at home against the Vikings this week.  The Vikes are 19th in points allowed to WR's, which is very good.  The are 15th in TD's allowed to WR's.  With Givens, you are gambling on the TD factor in my opinion.  With the targets Givens has been getting, I believe it's worth the gamble.  According to ProFootballFocus.com, Givens leads the Rams in targets of 20 or more yards down-field with 20 (Tied for 17th in the NFL).

Givens could be a useful two week play, as he is facing Tampa Bay in week 16.  In week 17 he is facing a tough Seattle pass defense.  (NOTE - If Richard Sherman is suspended by week 17, Givens would then be a good play since Seattle would be down two starting CB's).


Kris Durham - DET (0% owned, DEEP SLEEPER ALERT)

That's right, 0% owned.  Picking up this type of player takes a serious leap of faith, but if I'm going to give fantasy advice, then I need to take some risks as well.

Kris Durham is a 2nd year player, who was originally drafted by the Seahawks last year and was since signed to the Lions practice squad this year.  Due to several injuries at the WR position, the Lions signed him to the 53 man roster last week and started him opposite Megatron against Green Bay.  Durham did pretty well, posting 4 receptions on 9 targets for 54 yards.  Of those 9 targets, Durham was targeted 20 or more yards down-field 4 times (Megatron was targeted 3 times at distances of 20 or more yards down-field).

One other note, Matt Stafford and Durham played together in college at Georgia.  This type of familiarity adds to Durham's value.

This week, the Lions go on the road against an Arizona pass defense that doesn't allow many points to opposing WR's (22nd in points allowed per Yahoo Sports, which is very good).  The Cardinals top cover corner is Patrick Peterson should be assigned to Megatron most of the game.  Stafford will take his shots down-field (5th in the league in attempts of 20 or more yards down-field) and I expect Durham to get his opportunities.

Picking up a player like Durham makes your opponent scratch his/her head and if this move works out for you, it may even strike a little fear into your fellow league managers:)  This is the definition of a HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD fantasy option.


Tight Ends

Dennis Pitta - BALT (30% owned)

If you've been hoping that Antonio Gates (93% owned) or JerMichael Finley (78% owned) will finally breakout of their season long funk, I give you permission to drop either on one of them this week for Dennis Pitta.  As a matter of fact, Pitta has outscored both of them this year in Yahoo and ESPN standard scoring leagues.

This week, the Ravens go up against a strong Denver defense.  Fortunately for Pitta, one thing Denver's defense hasn't done well is cover Tight Ends.  The Broncos have given up the 2nd most points to opposing TE's this season.

Pitta is 3rd in targets for the Ravens, behind WR's Bolden and Smith.  Since Denver's defense is stronger against WR's (23rd in points allowed), I think Pitta will have a very good opportunity to step up this week.

I would take Pitta over the more highly owned:  Gates, Finley, Bennett, Tamme, and Chandler.  I would even bench Jason Witten, who is going up against a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the fewest points to opposing TE's all season.

Ben Watson - CLV (3% owned)

Fact - Ben Watson is the 3rd highest scoring TE in Yahoo Standard Scoring leagues over the last 4 weeks.

Fact - Ben Watson is facing a Redskin defense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing TE's this season.

This suggestion if for owners in very deep leagues or who are willing to take more of a risk and trust the numbers.  I'm not going to add anything else to this one, that stars have aligned for Watson.  A top 10 finish among TE's this week is very likely.


Kickers

Honestly, my strategy for kickers this season has been to take the best available player on Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Basically, I stream kickers because most of them can't be trusted to be a consistent source of points week in and week out.  I drop my kicker after their game and pickup a position player who may have future value due to injury to others or who has a very good matchup the upcoming week.  Often, I will wait until Sunday morning to fill my kicker spot, after the inactive reports have been announced. 

Here are my kicker suggestions for this week, these players have good matchups and have low ownership:

Suisham - PIT (38% owned)

Dawson - CLV (24% owned)

Novak - SD (6% owned)


Defense/ST

Oakland (4% owned, home vs KC)

The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but this week they face one of the worst offenses.  The Chiefs have a 2-11 record (1-5 on the road), 31st in scoring at 15.0 points per game and give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses.  It does hurt that KC is starting Brady Quinn at QB again and Dwayne Bowe who is their best WR will miss the game due to a rib injury.

Tennessee (10% owned, home vs NYJ)

Like the Raiders, the Titans are at home.  They face a Jets team that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing defenses.  The Jets offense is 26th in scoring at 18.8 points per game, 29th in passing yards, and 27th in passing TDs.  They do have a respectable running game (13th in NFL w/119.1 ypg), but as long as Mark Sanchez is at the helm, you want the defense playing against this team.

Neither of these picks are flashy.  If you have a top defense, then you should probably roll with them.  If you stream defense, then Oakland and Tennessee need to be given consideration this week as a plug and play.

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This is the first post for my new blog.  My goal with this type of fantasy input is to give you realistic options for winning your matchup in a given week.  I won't list 10 players at each position just to increase my odds of being right.  I assume that many of you are in competitive leagues and need suggestions that are actually still available to you.

Good luck too all of you and please feel free to leave comments now or tell me I'm wrong Tuesday morning:)