2013 NFL Draft Prospects - Running Backs "Who protects the football and who doesn't?" (Fumble %).

Last week I published a post regarding NFL Running Back ball security (fumble %).  This week I decided to take a look at the top Running Back prospects entering the 2013 NFL Draft.

I believe ball security is one of the most important attributes when evaluating a running back.  One of the quickest ways to get sent to the bench in the NFL is to consistently fumble the football.  A player could ultimately lose their job if they can't properly protect the pigskin.

Below are 24 of the top running back prospects and their college fumble percentage:

Remember, the NFL fumble percentage average the last three seasons for running backs is 1.05% (rushing and receiving touches combined).

You can see that 13 of these prospects had a collegiate fumble percentage that was higher than the 3-year NFL average.  While these players are very talented, the poor fumble percentage would raise a red-flag for me.  Maybe you just drop the player on your draft board, or maybe you remove him all together.

I have to say, Johnathan Franklin, Christine Michael, and Knile Davis would probably not make my draft board.  Turnovers are an absolute killer in the NFL, and while they could be coached on how to protect the football better, they may never improve.  It's a risk I would not take.

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Let's take a look at some of last year's rookie running backs.  Here is a table comparing their college fumble percentage to their first season in the NFL (Regular season stats ONLY):

Alfred Morris really stands out.  While he is slightly above the 3-year NFL average, he improved dramatically over his college fumble percentage.  Hillman and Rainey struggled in college and in their first NFL season.

Past college performance doesn't translate 100% to the NFL, but you can see many similarities in the above statistics.  I wouldn't argue if someone wanted to give some of these players the benefit of the doubt due to the small sample sizes.

The photo above, is 49er rookie running back LaMichael James fumbling the football in the 2nd quarter of the Super Bowl.  James only had 30 regular season touches and had one fumble during that time.  He received 13 more touches in the playoffs, three of them coming in the Super Bowl.  Regular season/playoffs combined, James had 43 touches (rush & rec) and coughed up the ball twice for a terrible fumble percentage of 4.651%.  In other words, he fumbled every 21.5 touches.  Looking back at his college fumble percentage, no one should be shocked that he is having issues in the NFL.

Most will agree that LaMichael James is an explosive offensive talent, but in a league where every possession is precious (more so in the playoffs), can he really be trusted going forward?  If there is one thing James should be working on this off-season, it's ball security.  Otherwise, he may not see the field much next year.

If your favorite NFL team is in need of a running back, don't get too upset if they pass on a player that can't protect the football.  Alfred Morris appears to be the exception, not the rule.

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*All college fumble statistics gathered from www.teamrankings.com.  Fumble statistics on individual college players is very difficult to find in my experience.  If you find a better source please let me know.  These are the most accurate statistics I could find.  

For a complete breakdown of my thoughts on fumble percentages, I encourage you to read this blog.

NFL Running Back ball security (fumble %). Who's the best/worst?

One statistic that I love to evaluate is the fumble, but you can't just look at the fumble itself.  To properly evaluate a players ability to protect the football, you must also consider the total number of touches.  What you are looking for is the players fumble percentage per touch (fumbles / total touches).  This will tell you the rate at which a player fumbles so you can properly evaluate their ability to protect the football.  Also, I'm focusing on fumbles, not fumbles lost.  The fumble being recovered by the player (or most likely his teammates), has nothing to do with the player's actual ability to protect the football.

The fumble percentage is not something you will find on NFL websites or in any stat section that I've found (if you have found it please let me know).  This surprises me, since the math is so simple and the other statistics needed to calculate the percentage are readily available.

In this blog, I will evaluate fumble percentage per touch for NFL running backs.  I will discuss the position as a whole and look at individual players.  Specifically, I will be looking at all running back statistics from the 2010 regular season through the 2012 regular season.  For the NFL running back averages, all players categorized has a RB have been factored in.  When I look at individual players it will be focused on those with the majority of the touches, like starters and third down backs.

Before we go any further, let's define the fumble per the NFL Rulebook:  

Article 4 A Fumble is any act, other than a pass or kick, which results in loss of player possession. The term Fumble always implies possession. (8-7-3).

It's something most of us know, but I want to be sure we are all on the same page before we begin.

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Here are the total running back fumble statistics from 2010 to 2012 (Regular Season only):

The first thing you should notice is that NFL running backs as a whole don't fumble very often.  A 1% fumble rate is pretty darn good and it's why these players are in the NFL.  That said, as with any statistic some players will be above or below the average (we'll look at that a little later).

Running backs fumble at a slightly higher rate when catching the football versus taking a hand off, but it's a very small difference (0.077%).  Due to having a higher number of rushing touches, the combined average of 1.048% is more in line with the "Rushing Only" statistics.

When looking at individual running backs, I will be using the combined fumble percentage.

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Some of you may ask why I excluded kick and punt return touches.  The answer is simple.  Kick and punt returners fumble at a much high rate than running backs and I don't want to penalize a player for participating in that "high risk" role.  

Here are the fumble statistics for ALL kick and punt returners that last 3 seasons:

You can see that the role of kick returner has a fumble percentage twice has high as the running back average.  Even worse, punt returners fumble 6 to 7 times more than a running back (carries & receptions).

This is why I excluded the return touches and fumbles from the running back analysis.  It's simply not fair to players who participate in the those roles.

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Let's take a look at individual running backs.  I broke them into three groups by number of total touches (carries + receptions).

Group 1 (700+ touches):

Bold indicates below the 3-year NFL average for the RB position.

Take note of Adrian Peterson.  He had a fumble issue early in his career, but over the last three seasons he is one of the best at securing the pigskin.

Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch is one of the worst in this group.  His extremely aggressive running style could be partially responsible for his below average ball security.  


Group 2 (400 to 699 touches):

Are you surprised to see Darren Sproles so high on this list?  He may be a small running back, but he knows how to protect the football.  

How about Colts running back Donald Brown?  In most respects, he's an average NFL running back, but he hasn't fumbled the football ball since his rookie season in 2009. 

Both Peyton Hillis (UFA) and LeGarrette Blount (RFA) are free agents entering the 2013 season.  All I have to say is, "BUYER BEWARE."  These two are horrible at protecting the football.  

Blount is similar to Lynch in his aggressive running style, but is even worse at securing the football.  His aggressive style is a key attribute, but a team must decide if the positives outweigh the negatives before giving him valuable touches.  Remember, fewer turnovers typically equals more wins in the NFL  


Group 3 (<400 touches):

While the above group of running backs haven't had many touches over the last three seasons (many are rookies), I believe you can still spot potential trends.

Take Bryce Brown for example.  He had some very good games while filling in for the injured LeSean McCoy, but those fumbles are costly and if he wants to continue having a job in the NFL he will need to significantly improve how he carries the football.

Other likes Jackie Battle and Justin Forsett have shown they can be trusted with the football.  Battle often receives goal line touches, while Forsett has been a trusted third down back over the years.  

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Last, but not least.  I have to address the issue of running backs fumbling in the playoffs.  Some players perform better under pressure, while other crumble under it.  

Here are the running back fumble percentages from the playoffs the last three seasons:

The sample size for the playoffs is much smaller than the regular season, but it clearly show a higher fumble rate for running backs in the playoffs. 

Ray Rice might be the best example of a player buckling under the pressure of the playoffs.  He has a regular season fumble percentage of 0.284% (3 fumbles on 1055 touches)has produced a horrible playoff fumble percentage of 2.778% (5 fumbles on 180 touches).  Granted, three of those playoff fumbles came this post-season, but the difference is staggering.

Lucky for Ray Rice, the Ravens won the Super Bowl.  If they hadn't won, we might be hearing more about his playoff fumbles and whispers of Bernard Pierce receiving more playing time.

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I really enjoyed putting together this blog post and hope you enjoyed reading it.  I plan to do other positions in future blogs.

Feel free to comment below and thank you for spending your time reading my blog.




* Statistics gathered from NFL.com

2013 NFL Free Agency - What's next for future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson?

On Friday, we found out that star defensive back Charles Woodson would be released by the Green Bay Packers.  Woodson is coming off a season where he was moved to a new position at free safety and missed 9 regular season games due to a broken collarbone.  You may remember, that Woodson broke this same collarbone during Super Bowl 45.  By releasing Woodson, the Packers will save $9,437,500 against their cap for the 2013 season; he made $6.5M last season (per Spotrac).

                                          Matt Ludtke / Associated Press


Per Ian Rapoport's tweet, Woodson would like to play for a Super Bowl contender.

It's possible he's brought in by a team to help mentor a young secondary, but that seems unlikely.  

Woodson will turn 37 years old on October 7th, which is week 5 of the 2013 NFL regular season.  Injuries will be a concern at his age, but prior to the 2012 season Woodson had gone over four years without missing a regular season game due to injury.  

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Here are some of Woodson's career stats:

The former Heisman Trophy winner started his career with the Raiders in 1998.  Since becoming a Packer in 2006, he more than doubled his interception per game rate and his touchdown percentage per interception rate.  While in Green Bay, he was good for an interception every three games (actually, slightly better) and he turned one in every four into a "pick six".

The 11.5 sacks the last seven years highlights another skill NFL teams covet, blitzing the quarterback.  Not to mention, he's shown a great ability to force fumbles throughout his career with 29.    

The collarbone injury basically robbed Woodson of his 2012 season, but when healthy no one can argue with his ability as a play maker.  That said.  It would be wise for his next team to monitor his snaps, to help reduce the chance of injury and keep him fresh throughout the season.  Excluding 2012, Woodson has seen over 1000 snaps per season since 2008 (per PFF).

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I believe Mr. Woodson still has a few good seasons left in him.  With Woodson's knowledge and talent, a team can utilize him all over the secondary and in multiple packages.

Here is a list of teams that I could see Woodson signing with and why (in order):

Likely

1.  Denver Broncos - Let's not ignore the obvious, teaming up Charles Woodson with Champ Bailey in the same secondary would be awesome.  The Broncos front office showed last year that they will take a risk on an aging veteran player (see:  Peyton Manning).

Their current starting free safety Rahim Moore, is just not a playmaker (2 INTs in 31 games, 0 forced fumbles).  Moore is young and could learn from Woodson.

Denver could use Woodson at FS or as a nickel-back.  He is a great blitzer for a defensive back, which would add to an already dangerous pass rush.  The intangible, will be the added veteran presence to the locker room.  Players like:  Manning, Bailey, and Woodson know they have a limited amount of time to win another championship (or first for Bailey), this is a move that would get them one step closer in my opinion.


2.  New England Patriots - The Pats have no problem with bringing in veterans who only has a few good years left.  This off-season, they've been linked to Ed Reed (also a UFA), so it only makes sense that they would take a serious look at Woodson.  Belichick loves smart players and those who can be used at multiple positions.

Their secondary could takes some hits with starting corner Aqib Talib and former starting safety Patrick Chung entering free agency.  Devin McCourty was moved to safety this season after playing his first two seasons at corner, he could be moved back to corner if needed.  Signing Woodson gives them great flexibility on the field and in free agency/draft.


3.  Baltimore Ravens - Short and sweet.  This could happen if they don't bring back Ed Reed and Woodson is willing to sign a short term deal that is cap friendly.  Although Reed and Woodson are in a similar situation, Reed is two years younger and would likely demand more money.


4.  Washington Redskins - Their secondary was flat out awful last season.  They were 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed with 4,511 and tied for 29th in passing touchdowns allowed with 31.  The bottom line is they need help.  Madieu Williams who started a free safety for the Redskins in 2012 is a unrestricted free agent and is unlikely to be brought back as a starter.  This season, opposing quarterbacks had a 100.2 rating when throwing into Williams' coverage (per ProFootballFocus.com).

This is somewhat of a long shot at the moment, since the Redskins are projected to be $4M over the 2013 salary cap.  They have work to do with their cap, but they shouldn't be eliminated from consideration.  Woodson wouldn't be the first aging veteran that Daniel Snyder has "overpaid" to come to DC.

Very unlikely, due to cap issues

5.  New Orleans Saints ($14.7M over cap) - As far as contenders that have a need in their secondary, no team has a bigger need then the Saints.  To say they had a "pass defense" is disrespectful to the phrase itself.  They were 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed (4,681), tied for last in yards per attempt allowed (8.1), tied for 29th in pass touchdowns allowed (31), and opposing quarterbacks produced a 93.8 rating against them.

If that isn't enough, their starting safeties earned the two lowest grades from ProFootballFocus for the 2012 season.  Starting free safety Malcolm Jenkins was graded as the worst safety in the NFL and starting strong safety Roman Harper was right behind him and the 2nd worst safety in the league.

Could they be any worse with Charles Woodson?  I don't think so.  He could also help mentor any young defensive backs they bring in through the draft.  The Saints have all the pieces on offense and could be right back in the Super Bowl hunt if they can fix their cap issues and address the horrendous "pass defense".


6.  Dallas Cowboys ($18.2M over cap) - Even though they drafted the very talent Morris Claiborne (CB) last season, the Cowboys pass defense still lacks play makers (to say the least).  The Dallas defense was tied with the Chiefs for dead last in the NFL in interceptions at seven.  That's right, seven interceptions for an entire team over a 16 game season.  Three individuals players (Tim Jennings, Stevie Brown, and Richard Sherman) during the 2012 season had more interceptions than the entire Cowboys defense.  On top of that, they were 29th in the NFL in passer rating allowed at 94.7.

Woodson could do wonders working with Claiborne and at the same time replace the average (at best) Gerald Sensabaugh at free safety.  Like the Saints, the Cowboys have a huge cap problem and would have to work wonders before they could legitimately consider signing Woodson.


Long Shot


7.  Seattle Seahawks - I had to include the Seahawks, since All-Pro corner Richard Sherman made this pitch for Woodson on the NFL Network yesterday (see here).

Here's a quote from Sherman to Woodson, "We'd love to have you."

Interestingly enough, the Seahawks could actually be a legit destination for Woodson.  They have the cap room, a coach in Pete Carroll that likes to get creative on defense, and a GM in John Schneider who is very familiar with him during his time in Green Bay.  Not to mention, long time Seattle corner Marcus Trufant will enter free agency, allowing Woodson to fill his role as a 3rd down/nickel back.  Woodson would bring pass rushing and play making skills that would be an upgrade over Trufant.

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I have no doubt, that wherever Charles Woodson ends up they will be better of for it.  What he brings to a team can't be completely explained in statistics alone.  He is a true professional who deserves to go out on top.  I wish Mr. Woodson the best of luck.

       

NFL Draft - 1st year rookie impact (by snap count) from 2010 to 2012. In depth, by position and round.

In recent years, many NFL analyst and bloggers have judged a team's rookie class by the number of snaps those players had in their first season.  There are plenty of reasons why this is not a very accurate way of grading (judging) a draft class.  Some of those reasons include:  depth/talent of current roster, number of picks, coaching philosophy when it comes to playing rookies, and organizational push to become younger and save money.

That said, I wanted to see what snap count could actually tell us (if anything) about a draft picks.  I took an in-depth look at rookie participation in the NFL by team, position, and round drafted from 2010 to 2012.  I looked at these statistics in multiple ways and wanted to share my findings with others who are interested in the NFL and specifically the draft.  For this analysis, I concentrated on average snaps per pick instead of total snaps per class (per team).  I believe the average snaps per pick is a better statistic to analyze since having a larger number of draft picks inflates a total number.  Granted, even an average can be inflated, but over time it's more reliable in my opinion.

Below are the tables I put together and some of my observations:
*(Snap count data was gather from ProFootballFocus.com)

  The above table (right side) is comparing the average numbers of 1st year snaps by all draft picks (per team) to the 3-year regular season winning percentage of the team that drafted them.  The reason I did this, was to see if there was any connection to draft pick usage and winning football games.  That teams highlighted in RED were above the 3-year NFL average of 254.6 snaps per draft pick, while the BLUE highlight indicates below the NFL average in snaps per pick.  New England has the highest winning percentage and is above average in snaps per pick, but the next nine teams with the highest winning percentage were all below the NFL average in snaps per pick.  This tells me that there is very little correlation between snap count per draft pick and winning football games.  In this case, the Patriots are the exception not the rule.

The above table on the left is comparing the average of snaps per pick to the 3-year winning percentage of the drafting team.  In this case, the RED indicates a team who has a winning percentage over 50% the last three years.  You can see that only 2 out of the top 14 teams have had a winning percentage high than 50% (DEN & SEA).  Again, first season snaps counts do not translate into on field success (in most cases).  In fact, in most cases it the exact opposite.  The more rookie snaps a team has, the more likely they are to lose.

To me, these numbers indicate that New England, Denver, and Seattle might have had the best draft classes over the last three seasons.  These teams are bucking the trend.  The are putting rookies on the field in their very first season, while winning games.  Teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Oakland continue to give their rookies more snaps while losing games at a very high rate.  Many of the perennial losers get a lot out of their rookie in regards to playing time, but very little positive impact when it comes to winning games.

The teams that are losing the most games year after year have an advantage by being able to draft before the winning teams.  With the exception of Cam Newton in Carolina and possible Josh Freeman in Tampa, the worst teams in the NFL year in and year out continue to be epic failures at the most important position in football - quarterback.  How many times can a team like Cleveland get it wrong?  Honestly, since they've were brought back to the NFL in 1999, their best QB was arguably Derek Anderson (and they didn't even draft him).

Of course, these numbers could also indicate that easing a rookie into NFL will result in more (overall) team success.

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This table should not surprise many of you.  Most of us would guess that first rounders play more snaps their first season than the later round picks.  It's a 170+ snap drop between the 1st and 2nd round, and again between the 2nd and 3rd round.  The 5th through 7th rounds have very little impact, which is a reason why we see these picks being traded so freely by many NFL teams.

This table doesn't mean that the players drafted in the 1st round were a complete success, it just means they receive the most playing time.  We've all seen 1st round busts who receive the snaps, but never reach the expectations that come with their draft position. Teams are trying to draft impact players in the first round, and due to the large investment in money and draft (position) value these players are expected to contribute immediately.

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The above table shows the average snap count by team (pick/round) over the last three seasons.  These numbers indicate which teams have had recent success and/or struggles in each round.  The averages are volatile and can be misleading, but they useful to determine late round contributions.

All teams are drafting players with the hope that they will contribute.  If a team consistently misses on a picks from the 5th round on, I think they should talk a long hard look at their scouting department.  For instance, San Diego has been horrible in all rounds the last three years.  In fact, they are below the NFL average in every round.  Do you think that could explain why they can't get over the hump?  Possibly.  On the other hand, the New York Giants are not doing any better.  The Giants are dead last in the league for snap count per pick at 115.0, yet they have won a Super Bowl during that time.  Are they horrible at evaluating talent, or do they have a coach that would rather rely on veterans?  I believe it's the later.

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This table might be my favorite out of all of them.  This is the total snaps by position, including what percentage of snaps came from 1st round picks.  We've all know that a 1st round QB has a tremendous amount of pressure to perform early, but they blow away the rest of the field in percentage of 1st round snaps.  Don't fool yourself into thinking that your team's 1st round QB isn't going to see the field their rookie season.  The stats say he will.

The defensive line comes in a distant second at 46% of 1st rounders accounting for all rookie snaps.

These numbers give you an idea of the NFL trends in regards to drafting.  Quarterbacks and defensive lineman are always in high demand which contributes to the 1st round percentages.  On the other hand, linebackers and tight ends are not in as high demand and tend to be a better value in the later rounds.

Offense and defense as a whole are very close, with the offensive line accounting for the most total snaps and the defensive backs coming in second.

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So, what about a draft class over time.  The above table looks at the 2010 draft class for every team and shows average snaps per pick from 2010 through 2012, as well as total snaps (right side).

Seven of the top 14 teams in average snaps per pick had a winning percentage higher than 50%, that is five more than first season snaps of rookies.  Six of the top 14 teams in total snaps had a winning percentage higher than 50%.  

I think looking at a draft class over a period of years is a better indicator of over impact/success.  Teams like the Giants, Vikings, and Bills have gotten very little return (in regards to playing time) from the their 2010 class, while Kansas City, Denver, and Green Bay have.

That last table shows the average numbers of snaps per year per pick from the 2010 draft class.  Please note, these snaps are only for the players that remained on their drafted teams.  You can see a nice increase from 2010 to 2011, but after that it leveled off.  Compare your favorite team's average to the total average of 863.  What are your thoughts?

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There you have it.  It was interesting research to say the least.  Next time someone tries to grade or judge a draft class (in the first season) by total number of snaps, remember to take it with a grain of salt.  Enjoy and feel free to leave your comments below.

Thanks for following my blog.

Four NFL QB's took their NEW teams to the playoffs. Who had the biggest impact?

Of the twelve teams that made the 2012 NFL Playoffs, four of them entered the season with a new starting quarterback (3 drafted, 1 free agent).  Over the course of the season, we've heard a lot about the star rookie quarterbacks (Luck, Wilson, Griffin) and future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning.  There has been an ongoing debate on which of these young QB's should win Offensive Rookie of the Year, while at the same time Peyton Manning is going head to head with Adrian Peterson for the NFL MVP award.

That's all fine and dandy, but what I haven't seen is someone comparing all four of these QB's.

In this blog, I will take a (statistical) look at the impact each of them had on their new team.  The obvious is that all four of them guided their teams to the playoffs (only the Broncos qualified the previous season), but these statistics tell a very interesting story.  Let's get started.

* Kirk Cousins (Redskins) started 1 gm, contributed to 2 wins, & had 4TD/3 INT

* Kirk Cousins (Redskins) started 1 gm, contributed to 2 wins, & had 4TD/3 INT

Luck's team enjoyed the largest increase in wins.  Even though they had the same number of turnovers from the QB position as last season, their scoring increased by over a touchdown.  The fact that the Colts made the playoffs just one year after being the worst team in the NFL still amazes me.

Manning took over the only team that made the playoffs the previous season.  The Broncos improved by five wins and clinched home field advantage (#1 seed) for the playoffs.  Manning helped the Broncos become the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL this season.  Their points per game increased by 10.8 (tops among these four QB's).  He also helped reduce the turnovers at the position by 8.

Robert Griffin III lived up to expectations and then some.  The Redskins offense went from being 26th in scoring last season, to finishing 2012 as the 4th highest scoring team in the league.  What's even more mind-boggling than that, is the reduction in turnovers at the QB position (20 fewer turnovers than 2011).

While Russell Wilson doesn't stand out in any one of these categories, Seattle did improve in every area.  He reduced the turnovers at the position while helping to increase their scoring by just under 6 points.

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Luck and the Colts had a massive increase in time of possession (4:33).  In fact, they went from 32nd in the NFL (ToP/G) in 2011, to a very respectable 13th by the end of this season.  The 102 additional first downs certainly contributed to the increase in ToP/G.  The Colts finished the 2012 season ranked 7th in 3rd down conversion percentage after a 23rd ranked finish in 2011.

The Broncos had a modest increase in time of possession, due in large part to a run heavy scheme in 2011.  That said.  Manning blew away the other three QB's in 3rd down conversion percentage (improvement) and he was significantly better than Luck and Wilson in redzone scoring percentage.  The improvement in 1st downs was also very impressive.

The ridiculous increase to the Redskins redzone touchdown percentage just reinforces how dangerous RGIII  really is.  Some will argue that fellow rookie Alfred Morris contributed to that as well, and to a certain extent I agree.  The decrease in 3rd down conversion percentage is somewhat shocking to me.  With all the improvements this offense made, this is clearly an area they need to address this off-season.

Seattle had the highest ToP of this group, while seeing the second biggest increase at 2 minutes 52 seconds.  Similar to the last set of statistics, Wilson was very solid across the board while not having the largest increase in any specific category.  

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I was curious as to what impact these players may have had on their defenses.  By having increased time of possession by the offense, I thought the defense would be fresher over the coarse a game and the season.  Also, I thought the added scoring by each of these teams would improve their defense by allowing them to play with more leads.

Three out of the four defenses allowed fewer points than the previous season, while only two allowed fewer total yards.

The Redskins' increase in points allowed could be a result of significant injuries on defense.  In week 2 of the 2012 season, they lost both star outside linebacker Brain Orakpo and starting defensive end Adam Carriker to season ending injuries.

Denver had the biggest improvement on defense.  Having the 2nd highest scoring offense allowed them to play with many large leads.  The core of the 2012 defense was very much the same as the 2011 team.

Seattle also returned much of the same personnel on defense in 2012.  The most significant additions were starting rookie middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and rookie pass rusher Bruce Irvin.  During the second half of the season, the Seattle offense was piling up the points and it allowed the defense to play with some very large leads.  

The Colts made the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense in 2012.  They still have personnel issues that need to be addressed this off season.  Both Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis switched to outside linebacker with mixed results.  A scheme change is no easy process; I would expect the Colts defense to make even more progress next season.

You can tie much of the defensive success to the success of the QB (and offense).  Of course, a great defense also assists the offense by getting them back on the field.  The relationship between the offense and the defense is great example of symbiosis.   

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Which of these off-season additions had the biggest impact in your opinion?

I have to go with Andrew Luck.  The Colts were a horrible team just 12 months ago, with little to no hope to make the playoffs this season.  The only negative to Luck are the turnovers, but he and the Colts managed to overcome those throughout the season.

If you are still on the fence, consider the number of game winning drives by each of these QB's (2012):

Luck (7, tied with Matt Ryan for 1st in the NFL)
Wilson (5, tied with Tony Romo for 2nd in the NFL)
Manning (3)
RGIII (2)

Tomorrow night at 9pm EST (6pm PST), CBS will air the NFL Honors Awards Show.  Although I'm a die-hard Seahawk fan, I would have to give my vote of Offensive Rookie of the Year to Andrew Luck.  Of course, I would not be surprised to see any of these three rookies win the award.

As for Peyton Manning, I think he's fortunate that the MVP votes are cast prior to the playoffs.  There is no question he had an outstanding season, but having the #1 seed in the AFC only to end up one and done leaves an awful taste in one's mouth.

Honestly, I think a strong case could be made for Andrew Luck to be the MVP as well.  Just look at where the the Colts were in 2011 and where they are now.

In the end, I believe all four of these players will receive MVP votes in the following order:

Manning
Luck
Griffin
Wilson

Take care and thank you for following my blog.

2013 NFL Draft Prospect - Cornerback (CB) Johnthan Banks "Is he the next Richard Sherman?"

Wednesday night, I noticed this twitter interaction between NFL All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman and star Mississippi State cornerback Johnthan Banks:

I found the confident statement "ill see you at the top," very intriguing.  Banks is already considered one of the top cornerbacks entering the 2013 NFL draft, but I wanted to take a closer look.

Let's start with his collegiate statistics:

The first thing I noticed here was his consistency.  Banks was a key contributor all four years and based on statistics alone, you see an all-around player.  His 16 interceptions rank him 4th all-time in the SEC (38% of all his defended passes resulted in a interception).

I really like seeing the sacks and forced fumbles.  MSU did not hesitate to use him on blitzes (watching game tape illustrates this as well).  In my opinion, the five forced fumbles are somewhat of a bonus coming from a corner (unless your Charles Tillman), but they should not be overlooked.  Between interceptions and forcing fumbles, this is a player that will get his team the ball.  It's often said, "Whoever wins the turnover battle usually wins the game," and in many cases that is true.  Not only will Banks help a team by being an outstanding pass defender, his ability to generate turnovers will directly contribute to winning football games.  

Banks is also a bit of a play-maker when he gets the ball in his hands.  While at MSU, he returned three interceptions for touchdowns and also scored on a punt return during the 2011 season.  His ability to turn interceptions into touchdowns is just another trait that results in winning more football games. 

Here's a clip of an interception he made off Tim Tebow (2009), which just happened to be returned for a 102 yard touchdown:

Here are some other highlights and game clips:

* Note - While researching Banks, I noticed that some draft profiles indicated a possible concern that he doesn't possess elite speed or vertical leaping ability.  What do you think? 

Video 1 - At 0:30 great punt return and 0:50 very nice vertical

Video 2 - Two interception game

Video 3 - Game clips, plus at 2:43 a great play/tip resulting in INT. 

Video 4 - Game clip, plus at 0:37 an excellent strip & recovery 

Video 5 - At 1:45 another great strip/recovery & at 2:33 INT with nice return. 

I know these are mostly highlights, and in no way am I'm saying he can't improve his game.  One area in particular that he needs to improve on, is his tackling.  He needs to be more consistent in squaring up to make the tackle, while wrapping up to finish it. (This can be corrected at the next level).  If you look at his entire body of work, I think you will see a corner that has played at a very high level in the toughest conference in college football (SEC) for the last four years.  

Banks has also shown great durability, having never missed a game in four seasons.  He began his freshman year in a backup role, but finished the last seven games of the season as the Bulldogs starting free safety.  Safety was the position Banks played in high school, as well as quarterback.  Prior to the start of his sophomore year (in college), Banks made the switch to cornerback where he has started every game since.

By the end of his senior year, Banks was honored with the following:

- 2012 Jim Thorpe Award (Most Outstanding Defensive Back)

- 2012 Walter Camp All-American (1st team)

- 2012 AP All-American (2nd team)

- 2012 All-SEC (1st team)

I want to focus on one of these honors in particular, and that is the Jim Thorpe Award.  Historically, the winner of this award has a very good chance of becoming a Pro-Bowl caliber player.  The last three winners (Morris Claiborne 11', Patrick Peterson 10', and Eric Berry 09') have all found early success in the NFL. Others like, Charles Woodson in 97' and Antoine Winfield in 98' have put together Hall of Fame worthy careers.  The most famous winner of the Thorpe award was none other than Hall of Famer Deion Sanders.  

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Banks is going to be the next "Prime Time."  The point is, he has a very good chance of becoming an great NFL player, while maintaining that level of performance for many years.

The part that actually impressed me the most with his Jim Thorpe Award, was what he said during the presentation ceremony.

ESPN's Chris Fowler asked Banks the following questions:

Fowler:  "What are you most proud of,  (in) your journey of perseverance to be here tonight?" 

Banks (answer): "Being a father to my kid."

Fowler:  In reference to his son (KJ), "What has he taught you about life?"

Banks (answer): "He's taught me to grow up and be a man."

Here is the full video trophy presentation.

Those two answers really stood out to me.  I see a young man who has his priorities in order and is only 23 years old.  He also comes off as very humble in that and other interviews.  Banks had a difficult childhood, but one thing is clear, he is a fighter.  From everything I've read and watched, Johnthan Banks is a person of very high character and that is extremely important to many NFL teams.  But, don't just take my word for it.

In reference to his two starting CB's (Banks and Darius Slay), MSU's defensive coordinator Chris Wilson was quoted (find it here) as saying this  “They’re also better human beings than they are football players.”  

Considering how good those two players are at football, that is a powerful statement.  

So let's recap.  In Johnthan Banks, we have: a 6'2", 185lb, cornerback who excelled in the SEC, won the Jim Thorpe Award, is raising his 1 year old son with his long time girlfriend (whom he recently married), all while overcoming a difficult childhood (Yahoo Sports childhood story here).  Who wouldn't want this guy on their team? 

Back to where we started.  Will Johnthan Banks see Richard Sherman "at the top"?  I wouldn't bet against him.

Extra Points:

* Currently, ESPN's Mel Kiper doesn't have Banks going in the 1st, while Todd McShay has him going 25th.  Scouts Inc currently has him ranked 22nd overall in their top 32.  The NFL Scouting Combine can also play a part in a player rising or falling on draft boards.  The combine will take place from February 20th through the 26th.

* I don't see Banks getting out of the 1st round or past the Giants (19th pick) for that matter (who have been scouting him for months).  As a Seahawks fan, there is a part of me that would love to see this guy lined up opposite Richard "Optimus Prime" Sherman (Browner is a FA after the 2013 season).

Thanks for following my blog and have a great weekend.